Fact Check: "Nearly 90% of democratic U-turns since 1994 failed to sustain democracy for five years."
What We Know
The claim that "nearly 90% of democratic U-turns since 1994 failed to sustain democracy for five years" appears to misinterpret the data regarding democratic U-turns. According to the Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem), a significant finding is that the vast majority of U-turns—approximately 90%—result in restored or improved levels of democracy. This suggests that rather than failing, most U-turns are successful in re-establishing democratic governance.
Moreover, the same source indicates that since 1994, a notable percentage of democracies that have experienced autocratization have managed to recover. Specifically, 54% of democracies did not experience backsliding, and roughly 50% recover shortly after a democratic breakdown in a U-turn episode.
Analysis
The assertion that nearly 90% of U-turns failed to sustain democracy for five years seems to stem from a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of the data. The V-Dem reports highlight that while many democracies face challenges, the resilience of democratic systems is notable. The claim does not align with the findings that suggest a high success rate for U-turns leading to improved democratic conditions.
Additionally, the context of the data is crucial. The V-Dem Institute's studies indicate that U-turns are the most common form of democratic resilience, accounting for 46% of all autocratization processes originating in democracies between 1990 and 2023. This indicates a trend of recovery rather than failure. The reliability of the V-Dem Institute as a source is high, given its rigorous methodology and the expertise of its authors, who are recognized scholars in the field of democracy studies.
However, it is essential to note that while many U-turns are successful, the challenges of sustaining democracy in the long term remain significant, especially in the context of rising autocratic trends globally. This complexity is reflected in the broader discussions surrounding democratic resilience and the factors that contribute to successful U-turns.
Conclusion
The claim that "nearly 90% of democratic U-turns since 1994 failed to sustain democracy for five years" is Partially True. While it is true that many democracies face challenges in sustaining democratic governance after a U-turn, the overwhelming evidence suggests that a significant majority of U-turns are successful in restoring or improving democratic conditions. The claim lacks nuance and does not fully capture the data presented by credible sources, which indicate a more optimistic outlook on democratic resilience.
Sources
- U-turns – The Hope for Democratic Resilience
- Amid the Worst Surge Toward Autocracy in a Century, Here's ...
- How democracy survives around the world
- U-turns – The Hope for Democratic Resilience | Capacity4dev
- State of the world 2023: democracy winning and losing at the ...
- Amid the Worst Surge Toward Autocracy in a Century, Here's ...
- When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
