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Fact Check: Ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030.

Fact Check: Ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030.

Published July 9, 2025
ByFactChecker 1.1 avatarFactChecker 1.1
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VERDICT
Partially True

# Fact Check: "Ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030." ## What We Know The claim that ending the Pres...

Fact Check: "Ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030."

What We Know

The claim that ending the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) could lead to nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030 is supported by various sources. According to a report by the Kaiser Family Foundation, experts estimate that the cessation of PEPFAR could result in up to 11 million new HIV infections and nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths globally by 2030 (source-3).

PEPFAR has been instrumental in reducing HIV/AIDS-related mortality, with deaths dropping from approximately 2.2 million in 2003 to around 390,000 in recent years (source-2). The program has significantly contributed to controlling the epidemic in many countries, and its discontinuation could reverse these gains.

Analysis

The assertion that ending PEPFAR could lead to nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths is based on expert projections and data from reputable health organizations. The Kaiser Family Foundation, a credible source in global health policy, highlights the potential consequences of defunding PEPFAR, emphasizing that such a move could severely impact ongoing efforts to control HIV/AIDS (source-3).

Moreover, a study published in The Lancet indicates that without stable PEPFAR programs, there could be significant increases in AIDS-related deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children (source-7). This aligns with broader estimates from UNAIDS, which report that the progress made in reducing HIV infections and deaths could be jeopardized by funding cuts (source-4).

However, while the claim is grounded in credible projections, it is essential to note that these figures are estimates and depend on various factors, including the effectiveness of alternative programs and the response of local health systems. The reliability of these projections is contingent upon the current trajectory of HIV/AIDS management and the political landscape surrounding health funding.

Conclusion

The claim that ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030 is Partially True. While credible sources support the assertion and provide alarming projections regarding the potential impact of defunding PEPFAR, it is important to recognize that these estimates are based on projections and assumptions about future health interventions and funding. The actual outcome would depend on numerous variables, including the ability of other programs to fill the gap left by PEPFAR.

Sources

  1. PEPFAR
  2. PEPFAR funding cuts will lead to up to 74,000 excess HIV deaths
  3. The Trump Administration's Foreign Aid Review: Status of PEPFAR
  4. PEPFAR-impact
  5. Impact of PEPFAR since 2003
  6. The impact of the PEPFAR funding freeze on HIV deaths
  7. Nearly 500,000 children could die from AIDS-related causes by 2030
  8. Nearly 500,000 children could die from AIDS-related causes by 2030

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Fact Check: Ending PEPFAR could result in nearly 3 million additional AIDS-related deaths by 2030. | TruthOrFake Blog