Fact Check: "Heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century under current climate policies."
What We Know
Recent studies indicate that heat-related deaths are projected to increase significantly due to climate change. A systematic review of research found that heat-related mortality is expected to more than double by the 2050s and potentially triple by the 2080s under current climate scenarios (source-1). Furthermore, a report by an international team of health experts forecasts a potential surge of approximately 370% in yearly heat deaths by mid-century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate (source-2).
In the United States, projections suggest that heat-related cardiovascular deaths could rise by up to 233% between 2036 and 2065, depending on the emissions scenario (source-3). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also noted that various factors influence the extent and timing of health consequences associated with extreme heat events (source-4).
Analysis
The claim that heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century is supported by a range of studies that indicate a significant increase in mortality rates due to extreme heat. The systematic review highlights a consensus among researchers that climate change will lead to substantial increases in heat-related mortality, with projections varying based on different scenarios (source-1).
However, while some studies predict increases of over 300%, others suggest more moderate increases around 233% (source-3). The discrepancy in projections can be attributed to differences in methodologies, geographic focus, and assumptions about future climate scenarios. For instance, the EPA notes that different methods can yield varying estimates of heat-related deaths (source-4).
The reliability of the sources is generally high, as they include peer-reviewed articles and reports from reputable institutions like the EPA and academic studies. However, the potential for bias exists, particularly in studies that may emphasize certain outcomes based on their funding sources or institutional affiliations.
Conclusion
The claim that heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century under current climate policies is Partially True. While some studies project increases that align with this claim, others suggest more conservative estimates. The variability in projections underscores the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling and the need for continued research to refine these estimates. Therefore, while the potential for a significant increase in heat-related deaths is clear, the exact magnitude remains subject to debate.
Sources
- Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review - Link
- Heat-related deaths could more than quadruple by mid-century - report - Link
- Climate Change, Heat, and Excess Mortality - Penn LDI - Link
- Climate Change Indicators: Heat-Related Deaths | US EPA - Link
