Fact Check: "Heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century due to climate change."
What We Know
The claim that heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century is supported by various studies projecting the impact of climate change on mortality rates. According to a systematic review, heat-related mortality is expected to more than double by the 2050s and potentially triple by the 2080s from current levels (source-1). Another study indicates that heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the U.S. could rise by up to 233% by mid-century, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (source-2).
Furthermore, a report from Reuters highlights projections that suggest heat-related deaths could exceed quadruple levels in certain contexts, particularly in Europe, where extreme heat events have already led to significant mortality (source-4).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim is substantial, but it varies based on geographical context and specific health outcomes. The systematic review found that while many studies indicate a significant increase in heat-related mortality, the exact figures can differ widely. For instance, the U.S. projections suggest an increase of 134% to 222% depending on the emissions scenario, which does not reach the quadrupling threshold (source-2).
The reliability of the sources is generally high, as they come from peer-reviewed studies and reputable institutions. However, the projections are inherently uncertain due to variables such as socioeconomic factors, adaptation measures, and the unpredictability of climate change itself. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that projections are scenario-based and do not assign probabilities to specific outcomes, which adds a layer of complexity to interpreting these figures (source-1).
While some studies suggest that deaths could quadruple in specific regions or under certain conditions, the broader consensus indicates a substantial increase without universally reaching the quadrupling mark.
Conclusion
The claim that heat-related deaths could quadruple by mid-century due to climate change is Partially True. While there is credible evidence suggesting significant increases in heat-related mortality, the projections vary widely and do not consistently support the quadrupling figure across all contexts. The most reliable estimates indicate increases of up to 233% in the U.S. and potentially higher in specific regions, but these figures do not uniformly reach the quadrupling threshold.
Sources
- Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review - Link
- Climate Change, Heat, and Excess Mortality - Penn LDI - Link
- Study Links Climate Change to a Large Rise in Deaths - Link
- Heat-related deaths could more than quadruple by mid-century - Link
- Climate Change Could Triple U.S. Heat Deaths by Mid-Century - Link
