Fact Check: "As a result of G7 and EU sanctions, Russian oil and gas revenues have fallen by almost 80% since the beginning of the war in Ukraine."
What We Know
The claim that Russian oil and gas revenues have fallen by almost 80% since the onset of the war in Ukraine is supported by various reports and analyses. According to a statement from EU leaders, combined G7 and EU sanctions have indeed led to a significant reduction in Russian oil and gas revenues, estimating a decrease of nearly 80% since February 2022 (source-4).
However, the situation is more nuanced. The International Energy Agency reported that Russia's oil revenues dropped by over a quarter in January 2023 compared to January 2022, indicating a substantial decline but not necessarily an 80% drop (source-3). Furthermore, while sanctions have been impactful, Russia has managed to find alternative markets, particularly in Asia, which has somewhat mitigated the revenue losses from European markets (source-2).
Analysis
The assertion of an 80% decline in revenues is partially corroborated by the EU's statements, but the context is critical. The EU and G7 sanctions were designed to cripple Russia's ability to fund its military operations through oil and gas sales. While initial reports indicated a drastic drop in revenues, subsequent analyses reveal that Russia has adapted by redirecting its oil exports to countries like India and China, which have increased their imports of Russian crude (source-2).
The effectiveness of the sanctions is also complicated by the use of "shadow" tankers, which allow Russia to circumvent some of the restrictions imposed by the sanctions. Reports indicate that a significant portion of Russian oil is now transported using vessels that are not subject to the sanctions, thereby allowing Russia to maintain higher revenue levels than initially anticipated (source-2).
Additionally, while the sanctions have indeed reduced revenues, the actual figures vary depending on the source and the metrics used for measurement. For example, while some analyses suggest a near 80% reduction, others indicate that the drop is less severe when considering total revenue streams and new market adaptations (source-5).
Conclusion
The claim that Russian oil and gas revenues have fallen by almost 80% since the beginning of the war in Ukraine is Partially True. While there is substantial evidence indicating a significant decline in revenues due to G7 and EU sanctions, the actual percentage varies based on different analyses and the evolving nature of Russia's export strategies. The adaptation of Russia's oil sales to new markets and the use of shadow tankers complicate the narrative, suggesting that while sanctions have had a notable impact, the situation is not as straightforward as an 80% reduction might imply.
