Fact Check: "Removing over 11 million people from Medicaid could result in more than 100,000 deaths."
What We Know
Recent research indicates that proposed changes to Medicaid could lead to significant mortality rates. A letter from public health researchers at Yale University and the University of Pennsylvania warns that provisions in a House-passed federal budget reconciliation bill could result in over 51,000 preventable deaths annually if enacted. This estimate is based on the projected loss of coverage for approximately 7.7 million people, which could lead to an estimated 11,300 additional deaths due to lack of access to Medicaid or ACA Marketplace coverage (Yale School of Public Health).
The researchers also project that the disenrollment of 1.38 million low-income Medicare beneficiaries could increase mortality by 18,200 per year, while the elimination of nursing home staffing standards could lead to another 13,000 deaths annually. Additionally, the expiration of enhanced ACA Premium Tax Credits could push 5 million Americans into uninsurance, resulting in an estimated 8,811 more deaths each year (NBC News, Scientific American).
Analysis
The claim that removing over 11 million people from Medicaid could result in more than 100,000 deaths is partially true. While the specific figure of 100,000 deaths is not directly supported by the cited research, the total projected deaths from various proposed Medicaid cuts and changes is significant. The researchers' estimates total over 51,000 deaths, which is substantial but does not reach the 100,000 mark claimed.
The sources used for these estimates are credible, including peer-reviewed studies and expert opinions from recognized institutions. The Yale and University of Pennsylvania researchers utilized a methodology grounded in peer-reviewed literature that quantifies the relationship between insurance coverage, access to medications, and nursing home staffing levels with all-cause mortality (Yale School of Public Health). However, the extrapolation to a figure as high as 100,000 deaths appears to be an overestimate based on the available data.
Moreover, the reliability of the sources is high, as they come from reputable academic institutions and are supported by empirical data. However, it is essential to note that projections of mortality based on policy changes can vary widely depending on assumptions made in the modeling process (The Lancet).
Conclusion
The claim that removing over 11 million people from Medicaid could result in more than 100,000 deaths is partially true. While credible research indicates that significant mortality could result from proposed changes to Medicaid—totaling over 51,000 deaths annually—the specific figure of 100,000 deaths is not directly supported by the evidence. The estimates provided by researchers highlight serious public health concerns but should be interpreted with caution regarding their extrapolation to larger numbers.
Sources
- Proposed changes to Medicaid, other health programs could lead to over 51,000 preventable deaths, researchers warn. Yale School of Public Health
- Medicaid and Rural Health. MACPAC
- Proposed Medicaid cuts could lead to thousands of deaths. NBC News
- How Massive Medicaid Cuts Will Harm People's Health. Scientific American
- How Trump bill Medicaid cuts will impact U.S. health care. CNBC
- By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away. CBPP
- Medicaid cuts, mortality, and health-care expenditure in the U.S. The Lancet
- Did the ACA Medicaid expansion save lives? ScienceDirect
