Fact Check: We are heading for a recession

Claim Analysis: "We are heading for a recession"

1. Introduction

The claim that "we are heading for a recession" has gained traction in various economic discussions, particularly as analysts and economists assess current economic indicators and forecasts. This assertion reflects a growing concern about the potential downturn of the economy, influenced by factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. However, the validity of this claim is subject to debate and varying interpretations among experts.

2. What We Know

Several sources provide insights into the current economic outlook and the likelihood of a recession:

• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has published projections indicating that the U.S. economy is expected to experience fluctuations in growth, with updates reflecting recent economic developments. Their report from June 2023 suggests cautious optimism, but acknowledges potential risks that could lead to a recession by 2025 12.

• A report from J.P. Morgan recently raised the odds of a global recession to 60%, citing disruptive U.S. policies as a contributing factor 3. This marks a significant increase from their previous estimate of 40%.

• In contrast, an article from The New York Times highlights that despite widespread predictions of a recession in early 2023, the economy showed unexpected resilience, with growth continuing instead of the anticipated downturn 4.

• According to AP News, a majority of business economists have adjusted their forecasts, now expecting a recession to begin later than initially predicted, as economic indicators have pointed to a stronger-than-expected economy 6.

• Deloitte Insights notes that while interest rates have risen, which typically dampens investment, the economy still managed to grow, albeit at a slower pace 7.

• The World Economic Forum reported that economists remain divided on the likelihood of a recession, indicating a lack of consensus in the economic community 9.

3. Analysis

The claim that we are heading for a recession is supported by some credible sources, yet it is met with significant counterarguments:

• Source Reliability: The CBO is a reputable source for economic forecasts, providing nonpartisan analysis based on current laws and policies. However, forecasts are inherently uncertain and can change based on new data 12. J.P. Morgan, while a respected financial institution, may have a vested interest in projecting economic downturns to influence market behavior 3.

• Contradictory Evidence: The New York Times article presents a strong counter-narrative, emphasizing that the anticipated recession did not materialize as expected, suggesting that predictions can often be overly pessimistic 4. This highlights the potential for bias in economic forecasting, where negative outlooks may be more newsworthy and thus receive more attention.

• Economic Indicators: The mixed signals from various reports illustrate the complexity of economic forecasting. For instance, rising interest rates typically signal a cooling economy, yet the AP News report indicates that the economy has shown resilience despite these pressures 6. This contradiction raises questions about the methodologies used in forecasting and the weight given to different economic indicators.

• Diverse Opinions: The division among economists, as noted by the World Economic Forum, suggests that there is no clear consensus on the future of the economy, which complicates the interpretation of recession predictions 9. This lack of agreement underscores the need for caution when interpreting claims about impending recessions.

4. Conclusion

Verdict: Partially True

The claim that "we are heading for a recession" is considered partially true based on the evidence reviewed. While some credible sources, such as the CBO and J.P. Morgan, indicate a potential for recession due to various economic pressures, other reports, including those from The New York Times and AP News, highlight unexpected economic resilience and a delay in recession forecasts. This divergence in expert opinions illustrates the complexity of economic predictions and the inherent uncertainties involved.

It is important to recognize that economic forecasts are subject to change as new data emerges, and the lack of consensus among economists further complicates the situation. Readers should critically evaluate the information presented and consider the nuances of economic indicators and expert analyses. The potential for bias in forecasting and the variability of economic conditions necessitate a cautious approach to interpreting claims about future recessions.

5. Sources

1. Congressional Budget Office. (2023). The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts. Retrieved from CBO
2. Congressional Budget Office. (2023). An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025. Retrieved from CBO
3. Reuters. (2023). Global brokerages raise recession odds; J.P. Morgan sees ... Retrieved from Reuters
4. The New York Times. (2024). Economists Predicted a Recession. Instead, the Economy Grew. Retrieved from NYT
5. BBC. (2025). Is the US headed into a recession under Trump? Retrieved from BBC
6. AP News. (2023). 2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted. Retrieved from AP News
7. Deloitte Insights. (2023). US Economic Forecast Q1 2025. Retrieved from Deloitte
8. U.S. Bank. (2023). Is the Risk of a Recession Fading? Retrieved from U.S. Bank
9. World Economic Forum. (2023). Chief economists on what lies ahead for the world in 2023. Retrieved from WEF
10. CNN. (2025). US, global recession forecasts grow with Trump's massive 'reciprocal ... Retrieved from CNN