Fact Check: Ukraine has chances to win in the war

Fact Check: "Ukraine has chances to win in the war"

What We Know

The claim that "Ukraine has chances to win in the war" reflects a complex and evolving situation on the battlefield. Recent analyses indicate that while Ukraine has faced significant challenges, there are also signs of potential success. For instance, a recent report highlighted that Ukraine's counteroffensive, which began in June 2023, has made some progress with a notable breach in Russian defensive lines near Zaporizhzhia. This marks the first significant advancement after months of slow progress, attributed to factors such as limited military equipment and Russia's robust defensive preparations.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine's military has demonstrated resilience and adaptability. According to a study from March 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have shown high levels of tactical flexibility, even when facing overwhelming Russian numbers. Furthermore, Ukraine's military strength has been bolstered by a growing domestic defense industry, which has allowed it to become a formidable force in Europe, with approximately one million personnel actively defending against the invasion (Atlantic Council).

Analysis

Evaluating the evidence surrounding Ukraine's chances of winning the war reveals a mixed picture. On one hand, the report indicates that Ukraine's counteroffensive has struggled due to insufficient military resources and the effectiveness of Russian defenses. The report emphasizes that while Ukraine has made some tactical gains, the overall strategic situation remains precarious, especially with the looming threat of political changes in the U.S. and U.K. that could affect military aid.

On the other hand, the Atlantic Council argues that Ukraine's military capabilities have significantly evolved, making it one of the largest and most effective fighting forces in Europe. The UAF's ability to liberate substantial territory since the onset of the conflict and its innovative use of technology in warfare, such as marine drones, suggest that Ukraine possesses the potential to achieve significant military objectives.

However, the reliability of these sources varies. The report is published by a military institution, which lends it a degree of credibility, while the Atlantic Council is a well-respected think tank that provides informed analysis on geopolitical issues. Both sources, while credible, may have inherent biases based on their institutional perspectives.

Conclusion

The claim that "Ukraine has chances to win in the war" is Partially True. While there are significant challenges that Ukraine faces, including resource limitations and strong Russian defenses, there are also indicators of potential success, particularly in terms of military capability and strategic adaptability. The situation remains fluid, and the outcome will depend on various factors, including continued military support from allies and Ukraine's ability to capitalize on tactical gains.