Fact Check: Did Russia claim it would win the Ukraine war in 3 days?

What We Know

In the lead-up to the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there were reports suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin believed his military could swiftly defeat Ukraine. According to leaked documents from the FSB, Russia's intelligence agency, it was indicated that Putin expected to capture Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government within three days, based on flawed intelligence that suggested a popular uprising would support the Russian forces (source-5, source-8). However, this expectation was not publicly articulated by Russian officials at the time of the invasion, and subsequent analysis suggests that even within Russian propaganda, there was hesitance to claim that Kyiv would fall in such a short time frame (source-6).

Analysis

The claim that Russia asserted it would win the Ukraine war in three days is misleading. While internal documents and intelligence reports suggest that Putin had high expectations for a rapid victory, there was no official declaration from the Kremlin stating this. The leaked FSB documents reveal a miscalculation on the part of Russian leadership but do not equate to an official claim of a three-day victory.

Furthermore, the context of the war has evolved significantly since the invasion began, with Russia facing unexpected resistance from Ukrainian forces. The initial expectation of a quick victory did not materialize, leading to a prolonged conflict. The sources discussing these leaked documents are credible, as they come from established news organizations and investigative reports (source-5, source-8). However, the absence of a formal statement from Russian authorities diminishes the reliability of the claim that Russia publicly stated it would win the war in three days.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. While there were internal expectations from Russian leadership that the war could be won quickly, there was no official claim from Russia asserting that it would win the Ukraine war in three days. The narrative surrounding a quick victory appears to stem from miscalculations and internal assessments rather than public declarations.

Fact Check: Did Russia claim it would win the Ukraine war in 3 days?