Fact Check: "Tropical cyclones are 29% more likely to rapidly intensify now than decades ago."
What We Know
Recent studies indicate a significant increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing rapid intensification (RI) over the past few decades. According to a 2023 study published in Scientific Reports, the probability of rapid intensification in the Atlantic Ocean increased by approximately 29% from 2001 to 2020 compared to earlier decades (1981-2000) (source). This increase is attributed to various environmental factors, including warmer sea surface temperatures and changes in atmospheric conditions that favor RI (source).
Moreover, a separate study highlighted that the frequency of multiple-RI TCs has also risen significantly, with an increase of 82.43% observed between 2000 and 2020 compared to the previous two decades (source). This trend suggests that not only are TCs intensifying more rapidly, but they are also doing so multiple times during their lifecycle.
Analysis
The claim that tropical cyclones are 29% more likely to rapidly intensify now than in the past is supported by credible scientific research. The study referenced, which indicates a 29% increase in RI likelihood, is based on robust observational data and utilizes a comprehensive methodology to compare different time periods (source).
However, while the data shows a clear upward trend in rapid intensification events, the studies also caution that attributing this increase solely to anthropogenic climate change is complex. Factors such as natural climate variability and limitations in observational data can influence these trends (source). The studies emphasize the need for further research to fully understand the underlying causes of these changes and the potential role of human-induced climate change (source).
The reliability of the sources is high, as they are published in reputable scientific journals and are authored by experts in climate science. However, the interpretation of the data can vary, and the studies themselves acknowledge the multifaceted nature of climate influences on tropical cyclone behavior.
Conclusion
The claim that "tropical cyclones are 29% more likely to rapidly intensify now than decades ago" is Partially True. While there is strong evidence supporting the increase in the likelihood of rapid intensification, the complexities of attributing this solely to climate change mean that the statement lacks complete certainty. The increase is significant, but further research is necessary to disentangle the various contributing factors.
Sources
- A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone ... Nature
- Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical ... Nature
- 2023 Major League Baseball season - Wikipedia Wikipedia
- Intense humid heat ─ tropical cyclone compound hazards in eastern ... Nature
- Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates Nature
- 2023 MLB Standings and Records: Regular Season MLB
- 2023 Major League Baseball Standings - Baseball-Reference.com Baseball Reference
- Hurricane Milton's rapid intensification is part of a climate trend NBC News
