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Fact Check: The number of uninsured people in the U.S. can increase by millions due to policy changes.

Fact Check: The number of uninsured people in the U.S. can increase by millions due to policy changes.

Published July 2, 2025
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# Fact Check: "The number of uninsured people in the U.S. can increase by millions due to policy changes." ## What We Know Recent data from the CDC's...

Fact Check: "The number of uninsured people in the U.S. can increase by millions due to policy changes."

What We Know

Recent data from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) indicates that the overall number of uninsured Americans dropped by 4.4 million from 2020 to 2024, with 8.2% of the population, or approximately 27.2 million people, lacking health insurance in 2024, compared to 9.7% in 2020 (CDC, 2024) [source-1]. However, projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggest that certain policy changes could significantly reverse this trend. Specifically, the CBO estimates that a proposed reconciliation bill could lead to an increase of 10.9 million uninsured individuals, adding to an existing baseline of 5.1 million expected losses, totaling a potential increase of 16 million uninsured individuals (Brookings, 2025) [source-2].

Analysis

The claim that millions of Americans could become uninsured due to policy changes is supported by credible projections from the CBO, which is a nonpartisan agency that provides economic data and analysis to Congress. The CBO's analysis indicates that the proposed changes would reduce federal spending on health care programs significantly and would likely lead to increased uninsured rates, similar to the impacts seen during previous attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Brookings, 2025) [source-2].

While the CDC data shows a decrease in the uninsured rate from 2020 to 2024, it also highlights the precarious nature of health insurance coverage in the U.S., particularly among vulnerable populations. For example, adults living in states that did not expand Medicaid were almost twice as likely to be uninsured compared to those in states that did (CDC, 2024) [source-1]. This indicates that policy decisions at both state and federal levels can significantly affect insurance coverage.

The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is strong. The CDC is a reputable public health agency, and the CBO is known for its nonpartisan analysis. Both organizations provide data that is widely accepted and utilized in policy discussions. However, it is essential to consider that projections, such as those from the CBO, are based on current legislative proposals and assumptions about future behavior, which can change.

Conclusion

The verdict is True. The evidence supports the claim that policy changes can lead to millions more uninsured individuals in the U.S. The CBO's projections indicate a potential increase of 16 million uninsured due to specific legislative changes, which aligns with the understanding that health insurance coverage is sensitive to policy decisions.

Sources

  1. U.S. Uninsured Rate Drops by 15% Since 2020 | NCHS Pressroom | CDC
  2. New CBO estimates show 2025 reconciliation bill would have impacts ...
  3. Congressional Budget Office - Wikipedia
  4. About 17 Million More People Could be Uninsured due to the Big ...
  5. How Many Americans Don't Have Health Insurance in 2025?

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