Fact Check: The budget reconciliation measure will increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million.

Fact Check: "The budget reconciliation measure will increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million."

What We Know

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has provided estimates regarding the impact of the 2025 budget reconciliation bill, specifically stating that the legislation would lead to an increase in the number of uninsured individuals by 10.9 million by the year 2034. This figure is in addition to an expected baseline coverage loss of 5.1 million, resulting in a total increase of 16 million uninsured individuals when considering both factors (Brookings, Georgetown CCF).

The CBO's analysis indicates that the bill would significantly reduce federal spending on both Medicaid and ACA Marketplace coverage, projecting cuts of $806 billion for Medicaid and $301 billion for ACA Marketplace coverage over ten years (Georgetown CCF). The changes proposed in the bill are expected to create barriers to enrollment and increase costs for many individuals, thereby driving up the number of uninsured (KFF).

Analysis

The claim that the budget reconciliation measure will increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million is supported by multiple reputable sources, primarily the CBO, which is a non-partisan agency known for its objective analysis of budgetary impacts. The CBO's estimates are derived from comprehensive modeling of the proposed changes to Medicaid and ACA Marketplace provisions, which include increased paperwork requirements and reduced financial assistance (KFF, AHA).

Critically, the estimates have been corroborated by various analyses from health policy experts and organizations, indicating a consensus on the projected impact of the bill (Georgetown CCF, KFF). While some sources may have different interpretations of the implications of these changes, the core figure of 10.9 million remains consistent across the board.

The reliability of the CBO as a source is high, given its established role in providing unbiased budgetary analysis. However, it is important to note that projections are inherently uncertain and can be influenced by future legislative changes or economic conditions.

Conclusion

The claim that the budget reconciliation measure will increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million is True. This conclusion is based on consistent findings from the CBO and corroborated by multiple health policy analyses. The projected increase in the uninsured population is a direct result of significant cuts to Medicaid and changes to the ACA Marketplace that would create barriers to coverage.

Fact Check: The budget reconciliation measure will increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million.