Fact Check: "Taiwan's submarine program is a major deterrent against China's navy."
What We Know
Taiwan has been actively developing its submarine program, particularly the Hai Kun-class submarines, as part of its defense strategy against China. The first submarine, the Hai Kun, was launched on September 28, 2023, marking a significant milestone in Taiwan's efforts to bolster its naval capabilities (source-1). This program aims to enhance Taiwan's deterrent capabilities against the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which has been expanding its fleet and asserting its presence in the Taiwan Strait (source-2).
The Hai Kun-class submarines are designed to replace Taiwan's aging fleet, which includes older Dutch and U.S. submarines. The program has received support from the United States, including technology transfers that enable Taiwan to build its own submarines (source-2). Admiral Huang Shu-kuang, a key figure in the program, has described these submarines as a "strategic deterrent" that can counter China's military ambitions (source-3).
However, there are ongoing debates about the effectiveness of this submarine program as a deterrent. Some experts, including Ivan Kanapathy, a former U.S. National Security Council director, have expressed skepticism regarding whether these submarines can effectively counter China's superior naval capabilities (source-5).
Analysis
The claim that Taiwan's submarine program serves as a major deterrent against China's navy is supported by the strategic intent behind the program and the technological advancements being made. The launch of the Hai Kun submarine is a clear indication of Taiwan's commitment to enhancing its naval capabilities (source-1). The submarines are expected to play a crucial role in protecting Taiwan's maritime interests and deterring potential aggression from China.
However, the effectiveness of this deterrent is contested. Critics argue that the submarines may not be sufficient to counter the extensive firepower of the PLAN, which includes a larger fleet of advanced submarines and surface vessels (source-5). Furthermore, the program faces political scrutiny within Taiwan, with some analysts questioning its cost-effectiveness and overall strategic value in the context of Taiwan's defense strategy (source-5).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is generally high, as they include reputable news organizations and military studies. However, opinions on the effectiveness of the submarine program vary, indicating a spectrum of perspectives on Taiwan's defense strategy.
Conclusion
The claim that Taiwan's submarine program is a major deterrent against China's navy is Partially True. While the program represents a significant step towards enhancing Taiwan's naval capabilities and is supported by strategic military leaders, there are valid concerns regarding its overall effectiveness in the face of China's superior naval power. The ongoing debates about the program's viability and the political challenges it faces further complicate the assertion that it serves as a robust deterrent.
