Fact Check: "China's military superiority could crush Taiwan's resistance in a war."
What We Know
The claim that "China's military superiority could crush Taiwan's resistance in a war" reflects ongoing concerns regarding the military balance between China and Taiwan. According to a detailed analysis by Maj Nicholas Stockdale, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly increased its military capabilities, particularly in airpower, which poses a substantial threat to Taiwan and its allies (source-1). The article notes that the PLA's ability to launch massed missile strikes could effectively suppress U.S. and allied air operations, suggesting that Taiwan's defense would be severely challenged in the event of a conflict.
Additionally, a RAND study cited in the same article indicates that by 2017, China's military capabilities had reached a level of rough parity with the United States, and recent assessments suggest that the PLA's air superiority inventory may now exceed that of the U.S. (source-1). This shift in military balance raises concerns about Taiwan's ability to resist a full-scale invasion.
Analysis
The assertion of China's military superiority is supported by various military analyses that highlight the growing capabilities of the PLA. For instance, the production of advanced aircraft like the J-20 has outpaced that of the U.S. F-22, with estimates suggesting that China could produce up to 50 new J-20s annually (source-1). This quantitative advantage, coupled with the PLA's strategic focus on missile technology and air dominance, suggests that Taiwan would face significant challenges in a military confrontation.
However, some experts argue that Taiwan's asymmetric defense strategy and the potential for U.S. and allied intervention could prolong resistance against a Chinese invasion (source-1). Additionally, a piece from Diplomatic Inside emphasizes that while Taiwan cannot match China's military power numerically, the dynamics of modern warfare, including the role of technology and international alliances, could influence the outcome of a conflict (source-7).
The reliability of these sources varies; military analyses from established institutions like RAND and the U.S. Air Force are generally considered credible, while opinions from media outlets may reflect specific editorial biases.
Conclusion
The claim that "China's military superiority could crush Taiwan's resistance in a war" is Partially True. While there is substantial evidence indicating that China's military capabilities have grown significantly and that Taiwan would face severe challenges in a direct conflict, the outcome of such a war is not predetermined. Factors such as Taiwan's defense strategies, potential U.S. intervention, and the evolving nature of warfare could influence the effectiveness of Taiwan's resistance. Thus, while China's military superiority is evident, the complete suppression of Taiwan's resistance is not guaranteed.
