Fact Check: Statistically unlikely election results in four of five Rockland County towns revealed.

Fact Check: Statistically Unlikely Election Results in Four of Five Rockland County Towns Revealed

What We Know

The claim regarding statistically unlikely election results in Rockland County stems from a legal case initiated by SMART Legislation, a nonpartisan watchdog group. The lawsuit highlights discrepancies in the 2024 election results, specifically noting that more voters have sworn affidavits indicating they voted for independent U.S. Senate candidate Diane Sare than were counted by the Rockland County Board of Elections. This discrepancy is accompanied by claims of statistical anomalies, particularly in four of the five towns in Rockland County, where the results were deemed "statistically highly unlikely" when compared to the 2020 election results (Newsweek).

Max Bonamente, a professor of physics and astronomy, has stated that the data from these towns would require "extreme sociological or political causes for their explanation" (Newsweek). The lawsuit has garnered attention and is currently moving through the courts, with a judge ruling that the allegations warrant further investigation (Newsweek).

Analysis

The evidence presented in the lawsuit raises valid questions about the integrity of the election results in Rockland County. The statistical anomalies reported by Bonamente suggest that there may be irregularities worth investigating. However, it is crucial to note that statistical irregularities do not inherently imply fraud or misconduct. Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor, emphasized that while statistical discrepancies should be scrutinized, they can arise from various non-nefarious sources, such as errors or miscalculations (Newsweek).

The credibility of the sources involved in this claim varies. SMART Legislation is a recognized watchdog group, which lends some credibility to their assertions. However, the context in which these claims are made—amidst broader discussions about election integrity—can introduce bias. The media coverage, particularly from Newsweek, aims to present a balanced view but also reflects the contentious nature of the current political climate surrounding elections (Newsweek).

While the statistical analysis presented by Bonamente and the affidavits from voters indicate potential issues, they do not provide definitive proof of wrongdoing. As Panagopoulos noted, statistical comparisons alone cannot confirm or deny the legitimacy of the election results (Newsweek).

Conclusion

The claim that there are statistically unlikely election results in four of five Rockland County towns is Partially True. While there are legitimate concerns raised about the election results, particularly regarding statistical anomalies and discrepancies in voter counts, these concerns do not conclusively prove fraud or misconduct. The ongoing legal proceedings may provide further clarity, but as of now, the evidence supports the need for scrutiny without definitively establishing wrongdoing.

Fact Check: Statistically unlikely election results in four of five Rockland County towns revealed.