Fact Check: Statistical analysis shows 2024 election results in Rockland highly unlikely compared to 2020.

Fact Check: "Statistical analysis shows 2024 election results in Rockland highly unlikely compared to 2020."

What We Know

The claim that statistical analysis indicates the 2024 election results in Rockland County are "highly unlikely" compared to 2020 stems from ongoing litigation and public discourse surrounding the election results. A lawsuit filed in Rockland County alleges irregularities in the vote counts, particularly highlighting discrepancies between votes for President and Senate candidates, which the plaintiffs argue suggest statistical anomalies (source-3).

The plaintiffs assert that the voting patterns observed—where voters favored a Democrat for Senate but a Republican for President—were inconsistent and statistically improbable. They claim that in certain districts, Kamala Harris received between 1-5% of the vote while Kristin Gillibrand received 30-70%, which they argue indicates a significant irregularity (source-3).

However, the court has clarified that this lawsuit is unlikely to change the election results, as it primarily seeks a recount rather than a complete invalidation of the election (source-3).

Analysis

The claim relies heavily on the findings of the ongoing lawsuit and the assertions made by the plaintiffs. While the lawsuit does highlight perceived irregularities, it is essential to consider the credibility of the sources and the context of the claims. The organization behind the lawsuit, SMART Legislation, has been described as lacking formal governmental status, and the statistical claims made have not been substantiated by independent expert analysis (source-3).

Moreover, the broader electoral context shows that while there were shifts in voting patterns nationally, the specific claims regarding Rockland County's results remain unverified by independent statistical analysis. The Washington Post's analysis of the 2024 election results indicates a general trend of Republican gains across various demographics and regions, but it does not specifically address the anomalies claimed in Rockland (source-2).

The legal proceedings are still ongoing, and while they may reveal more information about the voting process and results, the current evidence does not definitively support the claim that the 2024 results are statistically unlikely compared to 2020.

Conclusion

Needs Research: The claim that statistical analysis shows the 2024 election results in Rockland are highly unlikely compared to 2020 lacks sufficient independent verification and relies on ongoing litigation that has not yet reached a conclusion. The assertions made by the plaintiffs have not been substantiated by expert analysis, and the court's proceedings indicate that the outcome of the election is unlikely to change. Further research and independent statistical evaluations are necessary to substantiate or refute the claims being made.

Fact Check: Statistical analysis shows 2024 election results in Rockland highly unlikely compared to 2020.