Fact Check: "Shipping through Hormuz could be disrupted for weeks or months."
What We Know
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime chokepoint, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and facilitating the passage of approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, which averaged around 20 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 (EIA). Despite recent tensions in the region, maritime traffic through the Strait has not been blocked, although the price of Brent crude oil increased significantly following escalations in conflict (EIA).
The potential for disruption exists due to threats from Iran, which has been known to target shipping in the region. The shipping organization Bimco has raised alarms that Iran could use missiles or drones to attack commercial vessels, particularly those affiliated with the U.S. or Israel (CNBC). Although shipping continues, the situation remains volatile, with a spokesperson from Hapag-Lloyd indicating that "things might change by the hour" (CNBC).
In addition, the geopolitical landscape has seen a rise in threats from Houthi rebels, further complicating the security of shipping routes in the Arabian Peninsula (CNBC).
Analysis
The claim that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted for weeks or months is partially true. While current maritime traffic is ongoing, the heightened threat level from Iran and its proxies poses a significant risk. The potential for attacks on commercial shipping could lead to temporary disruptions, which could escalate into longer-term impacts if significant incidents occur.
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis varies. The EIA is a credible government agency providing factual data about oil flows and the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, the warnings from Bimco and other shipping organizations (CNBC, Times of Israel) are based on assessments of the current geopolitical climate and potential threats, which can be subject to interpretation and may reflect a heightened sense of caution rather than definitive outcomes.
Moreover, while alternative routes exist, such as pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, these alternatives do not fully mitigate the risks associated with potential disruptions in this critical chokepoint (EIA).
Conclusion
The claim that shipping through Hormuz could be disrupted for weeks or months is partially true. While there are currently no blockages, the ongoing tensions and threats from Iran and its allies create a precarious situation that could lead to significant disruptions in the future. The potential for escalation remains high, and the situation warrants close monitoring.
Sources
- Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical ... EIA
- Shipping disruption surges around Hormuz amid Israel-Iran war, naval ... Times of Israel
- Shipping threats around Arabian Peninsula rising, largest ... CNBC
