Fact Check: Senate's bill could add $3.3 trillion in new debt over 10 years!

Fact Check: Senate's Bill Could Add $3.3 Trillion in New Debt Over 10 Years

What We Know

The claim that the Senate's bill could add $3.3 trillion in new debt over ten years is supported by a recent analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO, the proposed legislation would increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, which is approximately $1 trillion more than the House-passed version of the bill, projected to add $2.4 trillion to the debt over the same period (AP News, New York Times).

The CBO's analysis also indicates that the Senate bill would lead to an increase in the number of uninsured Americans, with an estimated 11.8 million more people losing health coverage by 2034 (AP News, New York Times). The bill includes significant tax cuts and spending changes, which are expected to exacerbate the national debt, already projected to increase by $21 trillion over the next decade (New York Times, Washington Post).

Analysis

The reliability of the CBO as a source is generally high, as it is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective analyses of budgetary and economic issues. However, some Republican lawmakers have expressed skepticism regarding the CBO's estimates, suggesting that they are using a "current policy baseline" that could misrepresent the true costs of the tax cuts (AP News, New York Times). Critics, including some economists and Democrats, have labeled this approach as "magic math," arguing that it obscures the actual fiscal impact of the legislation (AP News, New York Times).

Furthermore, the CBO's initial estimate of $3.3 trillion may be conservative, as it does not account for additional borrowing costs that could push the total closer to $4 trillion (New York Times, Reuters). This discrepancy highlights the contentious nature of budget scoring and the differing interpretations of fiscal responsibility among lawmakers.

The analysis also reveals that the Senate bill's provisions, particularly the extension of tax cuts from 2017, play a crucial role in its projected cost. The proposed legislation aims to make these tax cuts permanent, which significantly impacts the overall budget (New York Times, Reuters).

Conclusion

The claim that the Senate's bill could add $3.3 trillion in new debt over ten years is True. The CBO's analysis provides a credible and detailed estimate of the bill's fiscal impact, despite some political contention surrounding the methodology used in budget scoring. The evidence indicates that the proposed legislation would indeed contribute significantly to the national debt, aligning with the claim made.