Fact Check: "Russia's Special Military Operation Predicted 3 Days to Kyiv"
What We Know
The claim that Russia's military operation aimed to capture Kyiv within three days is supported by multiple sources. According to a case study by the Urban Warfare Project, Russia's initial invasion plan was predicated on the assumption that it could rapidly seize Kyiv and install a pro-Russian government, believing that this could be accomplished within the first three days of the invasion. This plan relied on speed and surprise, with the expectation that Ukrainian officials would flee or be captured quickly.
Additionally, reports indicate that Russian military leadership, including President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, believed that Kyiv could be taken in a short timeframe. A leaked email suggested that Shoigu would have claimed, "we will take Kyiv in three days," reflecting the military's expectations prior to the invasion. Furthermore, General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that a full-scale invasion could lead to the fall of Kyiv within 72 hours if Russia decided to proceed with its plans (Fox News).
Analysis
The assertion that Russia anticipated a three-day timeline for capturing Kyiv is corroborated by credible military assessments and reports from various sources. The Urban Warfare Project's case study is particularly reliable, as it draws on interviews with military personnel and extensive research into the battle dynamics (source-1).
However, it is important to note that while the initial plan aimed for a swift victory, the actual execution faced significant challenges. The Russian military encountered logistical issues, including fuel and food shortages, which hampered their advance (Wikipedia). Commentators have pointed out that the disorganized nature of the Russian convoy and the unexpected resilience of Ukrainian forces contributed to the failure of this rapid capture strategy (Newsweek).
Moreover, while Russian state media and officials promoted the idea of a quick victory, there was a notable lack of consensus among military analysts and Kremlin insiders about the feasibility of this timeline (source-4). This discrepancy highlights the difference between official narratives and the realities faced on the ground.
Conclusion
The claim that Russia's military operation predicted a three-day timeline to capture Kyiv is True. Evidence from military assessments, leaked communications, and expert analyses supports this assertion. While the expectation was set for a rapid takeover, the actual circumstances proved to be far more complex, leading to a prolonged conflict rather than the swift victory anticipated by Russian leadership.
Sources
- Urban Warfare Project Case Study #12: Battle of Kyiv - Urban Warfare Project
- Russian Kyiv convoy - Wikipedia
- On conducting a special military operation - Wikipedia
- Even Russian Propaganda Was Hesitant to Claim Kyiv Would Fall in Three Days - Newsweek
- Ukraine war: Putin thought he could take Ukraine in three days, leaked emails reveal - News.com.au
- Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine - Fox News
- How Russia's 'three-day' Ukraine invasion became Putin's humiliation - Mirror
- Who said; 3-day special military operation? - TheGunZone
