Fact Check: "Russia's shadow fleet has grown, now exceeding last year's numbers."
What We Know
Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has significantly expanded its shadow fleet of oil tankers. As of early 2025, the fleet has grown to 343 vessels, up from fewer than 100 vessels in February 2022, marking an increase of over 240% in just three years (Brookings). This growth has been attributed to the aggressive sanctions imposed by Western nations, which have prompted Russia to seek alternative means to transport its oil, including the acquisition of aging tankers from various sources, particularly from EU sellers (Brookings).
The shadow fleet's expansion is also reflected in the increasing number of sanctioned vessels; as of March 2025, 264 out of the 343 vessels in the fleet have been sanctioned by either the EU, U.K., or U.S. authorities (Brookings). This indicates a growing reliance on a network of vessels that can evade sanctions, which has become a critical aspect of Russia's oil export strategy (Washington Post).
Analysis
The claim that Russia's shadow fleet has grown and now exceeds last year's numbers is supported by substantial evidence. The data from Brookings indicates a clear upward trend in the number of vessels, with Russia adding approximately seven vessels per month since the beginning of the invasion (Brookings). Furthermore, the source of these vessels predominantly comes from EU countries, particularly Greece, which has played a significant role in facilitating the growth of this fleet (Brookings).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is high. The Brookings Institution is a well-respected think tank known for its rigorous research and analysis. The information presented is backed by a comprehensive database that includes data from various credible organizations, including the EU and the Kyiv School of Economics (Brookings).
Contradictory claims about the effectiveness of sanctions or the actual size of the shadow fleet may arise from different interpretations of the data or from sources with varying degrees of credibility. For instance, while some media outlets may report on the challenges faced by the shadow fleet due to sanctions, they do not dispute the growth in numbers (Reuters).
Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the assertion that Russia's shadow fleet has indeed grown and now exceeds last year's numbers.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that "Russia's shadow fleet has grown, now exceeding last year's numbers" is substantiated by credible data showing a significant increase in the number of vessels within the fleet. The growth from fewer than 100 vessels to 343 vessels within a span of three years, alongside the context of Western sanctions, confirms the validity of this claim.
