Fact Check: Russia's population could fall to 130 million by 2046.

Fact Check: "Russia's population could fall to 130 million by 2046"

What We Know

Recent projections from the Russian statistics agency Rosstat indicate that Russia's population could decline to approximately 130 million by 2046. This prediction is based on current demographic trends, including low birth rates and declining immigration numbers. As of January 2024, Rosstat reported that the population was estimated at around 146 million, a decline from 147.2 million recorded in the 2021 census (Demographics of Russia). The total fertility rate in Russia is currently estimated to be around 1.41 children per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 (Demographics of Russia).

The United Nations has also projected a significant decline in Russia's population, estimating it could shrink to 120 million over the next 50 years if current trends persist (Aging of Russia). This demographic crisis has been attributed to a combination of factors, including high mortality rates, low life expectancy, and an aging population (Aging of Russia).

Analysis

The claim that Russia's population could fall to 130 million by 2046 is supported by credible sources, including Rosstat and demographic studies. The projections from Rosstat are based on statistical analyses of current trends in birth rates and immigration, which have shown a consistent decline. For instance, the natural population decline in Russia has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine, leading to increased mortality and emigration (Demographics of Russia, Russia's Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat).

However, it is important to note that these projections are subject to change based on future policy decisions, economic conditions, and potential shifts in immigration patterns. The worst-case scenario projected by Rosstat suggests a population of 130 million, but there are also more optimistic forecasts that estimate a population of around 138.8 million by 2046 under different assumptions (Russia's Birth Rate Plunges to 200-Year Low).

The reliability of the sources is generally high, as they are based on official statistics and reputable demographic studies. However, the potential for bias exists, particularly in media interpretations of these statistics, which may emphasize alarmist narratives about population decline (Russia panic as population rate 'collapses').

Conclusion

The claim that "Russia's population could fall to 130 million by 2046" is True. This assertion is backed by projections from Rosstat and corroborated by demographic analyses from various credible sources. The combination of low birth rates, high mortality rates, and the impact of recent geopolitical events supports this prediction, although future developments could alter these outcomes.