Fact Check: "Research predicts more hurricanes will rapidly intensify due to global warming."
What We Know
Research indicates that global warming is likely to increase the intensity of hurricanes. According to a summary of findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization, there is a consensus that warming ocean temperatures, a result of anthropogenic climate change, are fueling more powerful tropical cyclones (TCs) (Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical ...). Specifically, the proportion of severe TCs (Category 4 and 5) has been observed to increase, and this trend is projected to continue (Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical ...).
NASA's analysis also supports this claim, stating that while the total number of storms may decrease or remain stable, the hurricanes that do form are more likely to reach higher intensities, leading to increased rainfall and storm surges due to rising sea levels (A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate). Furthermore, studies have shown that the rates of rapid intensification of hurricanes have increased in the North Atlantic, suggesting a link to climate change, although some of these changes may also be influenced by natural variability (A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim that global warming will lead to more rapidly intensifying hurricanes is robust. Multiple peer-reviewed studies and expert assessments indicate a clear trend towards increased hurricane intensity due to rising sea surface temperatures and enhanced atmospheric moisture, both of which are consequences of climate change (Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical ..., A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate).
The reliability of these sources is high, as they are based on extensive reviews of scientific literature and consensus reports from reputable organizations such as NASA and the IPCC. For instance, the IPCC's Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere consolidates findings from over 90 peer-reviewed articles, providing a comprehensive overview of the current understanding of tropical cyclones and climate change (Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical ...).
However, it is important to note that while the models predict an increase in the intensity of hurricanes, they also suggest that the overall frequency of storms may not significantly increase. This nuanced understanding highlights the complexity of climate interactions and the need for continued research (A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate, Global Warming and Hurricanes).
Conclusion
Verdict: True. The claim that research predicts more hurricanes will rapidly intensify due to global warming is supported by a significant body of scientific evidence. The consensus among climate scientists is that while the total number of hurricanes may not increase, the storms that do form are likely to be more intense and capable of rapid intensification due to the effects of climate change.
Sources
- Global Warming and Hurricanes - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
- A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate
- Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical ...
- PDF Hurricanes and Global Warming
- Hurricane risk in a changing climate — the role of uncertainty
- Search | ResearchGate
- Hurricane Rapid Intensification - Climate Central
- ResearchGate | Find and share research
