Fact Check: Recent polling shows Cuomo leading with about 45% of first-choice support in the ranked-choice field.

Fact Check: "Recent polling shows Cuomo leading with about 45% of first-choice support in the ranked-choice field."

What We Know

Recent polling data indicates that former Governor Andrew Cuomo is a leading candidate in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. According to a poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group, Cuomo has garnered approximately 45% support among likely Democratic primary voters, which reflects a four-point increase since March. His main competitor, Queens Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, follows with around 22% support. This poll surveyed 823 likely voters and highlights a significant lead for Cuomo, who has seen a 10-point increase in support since January.

In contrast, a separate poll by AARP New York and the Siena College Research Institute reported that Cuomo had 34% support among registered city voters, with Mamdani at 16%. This discrepancy suggests variability in polling results depending on the methodology and sample size.

Moreover, a Marist University poll indicated that Cuomo was the first choice of 37% of potential Democratic primary voters, while Mamdani received 18%. In a ranked-choice voting simulation from the same poll, Cuomo ultimately surpassed the 50% threshold needed to win the primary, achieving 53% in the final round against Mamdani's 29%.

Analysis

The claim that "recent polling shows Cuomo leading with about 45% of first-choice support" is supported by the Honan Strategy Group poll, which is the most recent and shows Cuomo at 45%. However, this figure is not universally corroborated across all polls. For instance, the Marist University poll indicates a slightly lower first-choice support for Cuomo at 37%, which raises questions about the consistency of polling results.

The Honan poll is conducted in partnership with the city’s five Chambers of Commerce, which may introduce a potential bias towards more moderate candidates like Cuomo. In contrast, the Siena College Research Institute is a well-respected academic institution, which may lend more credibility to its findings, showing Cuomo at 34% support. This variation highlights the importance of considering the source and methodology of polling data when interpreting results.

Additionally, the Emerson College poll, which shows Cuomo at 35% and Mamdani at 23%, further complicates the narrative of a clear lead for Cuomo. The Emerson poll also indicates a tightening race, suggesting that while Cuomo may be leading, the margin is narrowing, which could impact his overall standing as the primary approaches.

Conclusion

The claim that "recent polling shows Cuomo leading with about 45% of first-choice support" is Partially True. While the Honan Strategy Group poll supports this assertion, other polls present different figures, indicating that Cuomo's support may be lower than 45%. The variability in polling results underscores the need for caution in interpreting such claims, as they can fluctuate based on the polling organization and methodology used.

Sources

1. NYC Mayor's Race: Cuomo and Mamdani gain ground as Democratic primary ...
2. Poll: Cuomo wins mayoral primary in fifth round of balloting
3. Cuomo and Mamdani dominate Democratic primary for NYC mayor: poll - MSN
4. Cuomo's lead over Mamdani narrows in primary, new poll ...
5. NYC Mayor's Race: Cuomo maintains big lead, Mamdani ... - amNewYork