Fact Check: Poll shows Mamdani surging to 52% against Cuomo's 48% in ranked-choice voting!

Fact Check: "Poll shows Mamdani surging to 52% against Cuomo's 48% in ranked-choice voting!"

What We Know

A recent poll conducted by Emerson College Polling in collaboration with PIX11 and The Hill indicates that Zohran Mamdani has overtaken Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City when ranked-choice voting is simulated. The poll, conducted from June 18-20, 2025, shows that in the final round of ranked-choice voting, Mamdani leads with 52% compared to Cuomo's 48% (New York Post, Emerson College Polling).

In the initial round of voting, Cuomo had a slight lead with 35% support compared to Mamdani's 32% and other candidates trailing behind (New York Post). However, as the ranked-choice voting process continued, Mamdani gained significant support, particularly from voters who had initially favored Brad Lander, who was eliminated in the eighth round of counting (New York Post, Emerson College Polling).

Analysis

The Emerson College poll is a reputable source known for its polling accuracy in previous elections. The methodology involved contacting voters via text, landline robocalls, and an online panel, which is a standard practice in modern polling (Emerson College Polling). The sample size was 729 likely Democratic voters, with a margin of error of ±3.6%, which is acceptable for this type of survey.

Critics, including Cuomo's campaign, have dismissed this poll as an outlier, claiming that other polls show Cuomo with a more substantial lead (New York Post). However, the Emerson poll's findings are consistent with a trend of Mamdani gaining support over time, as indicated by his rise from 1% to 32% in just five months (Emerson College Polling).

While it is essential to consider various polls for a comprehensive view, the Emerson College poll's methodology and the significant shift in voter sentiment towards Mamdani lend credibility to its findings. Additionally, the support Mamdani received from Lander's voters, who were encouraged to back him, further substantiates his surge in the rankings (New York Post).

Conclusion

The claim that "Poll shows Mamdani surging to 52% against Cuomo's 48% in ranked-choice voting!" is True. The Emerson College poll clearly indicates that Mamdani has surpassed Cuomo in the final round of ranked-choice voting, reflecting a significant shift in voter preferences. The methodology and historical accuracy of Emerson College Polling support the validity of these results.

Fact Check: Poll shows Mamdani surging to 52% against Cuomo's 48% in ranked-choice voting!