Fact Check: "Over 20 million could lose health insurance under Trump's plan."
What We Know
The claim that "over 20 million could lose health insurance under Trump's plan" is rooted in projections regarding changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the potential expiration of subsidies. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), proposed changes to the ACA could lead to approximately 4 million people becoming uninsured over the next decade. Additionally, if the subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan are not extended, an estimated 4 million more individuals could lose coverage by 2026, as they would be unable to afford insurance premiums without financial assistance (NBC News).
The CBO further projects that enrollment in ACA plans could drop from 22.8 million in 2025 to as low as 15.4 million by 2030 if these subsidies expire (CBS News). This indicates that while the immediate loss of coverage may not reach 20 million, the cumulative effect of policy changes could significantly impact enrollment numbers.
Analysis
The claim of "over 20 million" losing health insurance is somewhat misleading because it conflates immediate projections with longer-term estimates. The CBO's estimates indicate that while 4 million could lose coverage due to specific policy changes, the additional loss of coverage due to the expiration of subsidies could add another 4 million, totaling around 8 million in the near term (NBC News).
However, the broader context provided by the CBO suggests that if these trends continue, total enrollment could decline significantly over the next several years, potentially reaching figures that approach the 20 million mark by 2030. This long-term projection includes various factors, such as the anticipated reduction in the number of people who can afford insurance without subsidies and the potential destabilization of the ACA marketplaces (CBS News).
The reliability of the sources cited is generally high, with the CBO being a nonpartisan agency that provides economic data to Congress. However, the interpretation of these numbers can vary based on political perspectives. For instance, while some may view the loss of coverage as a direct consequence of Trump's policies, others argue that it reflects broader economic trends and the inherent instability of the ACA marketplace (NBC News, CBS News).
Conclusion
The claim that "over 20 million could lose health insurance under Trump's plan" is Partially True. While immediate estimates suggest that around 8 million could lose coverage due to specific policy changes and the expiration of subsidies, the long-term projections indicate that enrollment could decline significantly, potentially approaching the 20 million mark by 2030. Thus, the claim captures a significant concern regarding future health insurance coverage but may exaggerate the immediacy of the impact.
