Fact Check: "Over 123,000 transgender individuals may be affected by passport policy changes."
What We Know
A recent ruling by U.S. District Judge Julia Kobick has significant implications for transgender and nonbinary individuals regarding passport applications. The judge blocked a policy from the Trump administration that required passports to reflect the sex assigned at birth, allowing individuals to request a male, female, or “X” designation instead (AP News). This ruling expands the preliminary injunction to cover all transgender and nonbinary individuals who are currently without a valid passport or need to apply for a new one (Reuters).
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has indicated that the number of individuals potentially impacted by this policy could be substantial, estimating that over 123,000 transgender individuals may be affected (ACLU). This estimate is based on data regarding the transgender population in the U.S. and the number of people who may need to apply for or renew passports in the coming years.
Analysis
The claim that "over 123,000 transgender individuals may be affected by passport policy changes" is grounded in the ACLU's assertion, which cites the number of transgender individuals who could be impacted by the restrictive passport policy. The ACLU's estimate appears to be based on demographic data and the implications of the policy change on passport applications (ACLU).
However, while the ACLU is a credible organization advocating for civil rights, the estimate is inherently speculative and relies on assumptions about how many individuals will seek to change their passport designations in light of the new ruling. The ruling itself, while significant, does not guarantee that all affected individuals will immediately seek to change their passports or that they will be successful in doing so.
The sources reporting on the ruling, including AP News and Reuters, provide a reliable account of the judicial decision but do not independently verify the ACLU's estimate. Therefore, while the estimate is plausible, it should be viewed with caution as it is not directly substantiated by empirical data.
Conclusion
The claim that "over 123,000 transgender individuals may be affected by passport policy changes" is Partially True. The estimate originates from a credible source (the ACLU) and reflects a reasonable interpretation of the potential impact of the court ruling. However, the figure is speculative and not definitively supported by direct evidence. The actual number of individuals who will be affected remains uncertain and may vary based on individual circumstances and decisions regarding passport applications.
