Fact Check: Over 10 million Americans could lose health coverage under Trump's bill.

Fact Check: "Over 10 million Americans could lose health coverage under Trump's bill."

What We Know

Recent analyses from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicate that the proposed 2025 reconciliation bill could lead to a significant increase in the number of uninsured Americans. Specifically, the CBO projects that 10.9 million people would lose their health insurance coverage as a direct result of the bill's provisions, which include cuts to Medicaid and changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace source. This figure is part of a broader estimate that anticipates a total increase of 16 million uninsured when accounting for existing coverage losses already factored into the CBO's baseline source.

The bill proposes various adjustments that would weaken the ACA, such as imposing additional paperwork requirements and reducing enrollment periods, which could make it harder for individuals to obtain or maintain coverage source. Additionally, the expiration of certain funding provisions for the ACA is expected to contribute to further coverage losses, potentially affecting an additional 4.2 million Americans source.

Analysis

The CBO's estimates are based on a thorough analysis of the proposed legislation and its anticipated effects on health insurance coverage. The reliability of the CBO as a source is well-established; it is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective analyses of budgetary and economic issues. The projections regarding the number of uninsured individuals are consistent with previous analyses of similar legislation, such as the ACA repeal efforts in 2017, which also indicated substantial coverage losses source.

Critically, the proposed bill does not outright repeal the ACA but instead implements changes that would significantly undermine its effectiveness. For example, the introduction of new paperwork requirements could create barriers for eligible individuals seeking coverage, effectively leading to unintentional disenrollment source. Experts have described the bill's approach as "repeal by paper cut," highlighting that while the changes may seem technical, their cumulative effect could be devastating for millions of Americans source.

Contradicting perspectives from proponents of the bill suggest that it may lower premiums for some enrollees and reduce fraud in the ACA Marketplace. However, these claims have not been substantiated with evidence that outweighs the CBO's findings regarding coverage losses source.

Conclusion

The claim that "over 10 million Americans could lose health coverage under Trump's bill" is True. The CBO's analysis clearly indicates that the proposed legislation would lead to a loss of health insurance for 10.9 million Americans, alongside additional losses due to the expiration of ACA funding. The evidence from multiple credible sources supports this conclusion, demonstrating that the bill's provisions would significantly weaken health coverage for millions.

Fact Check: Over 10 million Americans could lose health coverage under Trump's bill.