Fact Check: "NOAA predicts 6 to 10 hurricanes for the 2025 season"
What We Know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. According to NOAA's predictions, there is a forecast of 6 to 10 hurricanes for the season, with a total of 13 to 19 named storms expected overall. This forecast includes the possibility of 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) with winds exceeding 111 mph. NOAA's confidence in these ranges is reported to be 70% (NOAA, Climate Prediction Center).
The outlook is influenced by several factors, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and expected weak wind shear, which are conducive to tropical storm formation. NOAA has characterized the season as likely to be above normal, with a 60% chance of this occurring, compared to a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season (source-1, source-2).
Analysis
The claim that NOAA predicts 6 to 10 hurricanes for the 2025 season is substantiated by multiple credible sources, including NOAA's official communications and the Climate Prediction Center. Both sources provide consistent information regarding the expected number of hurricanes and the overall activity level for the season (source-1, source-2, source-3).
The reliability of NOAA as a source is high, as it is a federal agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting weather and climate. The agency utilizes advanced models and data analysis to produce its forecasts, which are widely regarded as authoritative in the field of meteorology. Additionally, the predictions are based on a probabilistic model, meaning they account for uncertainties and are based on historical data and current atmospheric conditions (source-2, source-3).
Critically, while NOAA does not predict specific landfalls or impacts of hurricanes, it provides a general outlook on expected activity levels, which is crucial for preparedness efforts (source-2). The forecast's probabilistic nature indicates that while the predicted ranges are likely, actual outcomes may vary based on evolving weather patterns.
Conclusion
The claim that NOAA predicts 6 to 10 hurricanes for the 2025 season is True. This conclusion is based on NOAA's official forecast, which provides a detailed and credible outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, supported by scientific data and analysis.