Fact Check: "Cuts to NOAA under Trump caused significant degradation in weather forecasting accuracy."
What We Know
During the Trump administration, significant budget cuts were proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which oversees the National Weather Service (NWS). Reports indicate that these cuts led to severe staffing shortages and operational challenges within the agency. An internal document from the NWS highlighted that due to "severe shortages" of meteorologists, the agency was preparing for "degraded operations," which included fewer forecast updates and potential reductions in weather balloon launches, critical for gathering atmospheric data (source-1).
In 2025, the Trump administration proposed a budget that was nearly 40% lower than the previous year, eliminating funding for NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which is essential for weather and climate research (source-2). Retired federal scientists warned that these cuts could lead to a "generational loss" in forecasting capabilities, as they would halt progress in improving forecast accuracy (source-3).
Analysis
The evidence suggests that the budget cuts under the Trump administration had a direct impact on the operational capacity of NOAA and the NWS. The internal documents and statements from union officials indicate that staffing levels were critically low, with vacancy rates potentially reaching 35% in some offices (source-1). This reduction in staff meant that meteorologists could only provide tailored forecasts less frequently, leading to a reliance on automated computer models without human adjustments, which are known to be less accurate (source-1).
Moreover, the proposed budget cuts were criticized by former NOAA officials and scientists, who argued that the elimination of research funding would stifle advancements in forecasting technology and methodologies (source-2). The consensus among experts is that without adequate funding and staffing, the NWS's ability to provide timely and accurate weather forecasts would be severely compromised, potentially endangering lives during severe weather events (source-3).
While some sources, such as the Commerce Secretary, claimed that NOAA was transforming its operations with cutting-edge technology, this assertion contrasts sharply with the warnings from scientists and former NOAA officials about the detrimental effects of budget cuts on forecasting accuracy (source-2).
Conclusion
The claim that cuts to NOAA under Trump caused significant degradation in weather forecasting accuracy is True. The evidence overwhelmingly supports that the budget cuts led to staffing shortages and operational limitations that negatively impacted the accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts. The reduction in funding for critical research and operational capabilities has been recognized by experts as a significant setback for the agency.
Sources
- Weather Service Prepares for 'Degraded Operations' Amid ...
- Major NOAA budget cuts could put forecasts in peril, lives ...
- Massive NOAA cuts could put forecasts in peril, lives ...
- Ex-weather bosses sent haunting letter warning Trump cuts ...
- US efforts to predict weather hit by staffing cuts: ex-NOAA ...
- Massive NOAA cuts could put forecasts in peril, lives ...
- How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and ...
- Massive NOAA cuts could put forecasts in peril, lives ...