Fact Check: "Trump's aid cuts could cause over 14 million additional deaths by 2030"
What We Know
Recent research published in The Lancet indicates that the Trump administration's significant cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030. The study, co-authored by Davide Rasella, highlights that approximately one-third of those at risk are children. The researchers assert that low- and middle-income countries could face a humanitarian crisis comparable to a global pandemic or major armed conflict due to these funding reductions. According to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, over 80% of USAID programs were canceled, which the administration justified by claiming the agency had mismanaged funds and lacked effectiveness since the Cold War (NPR).
The researchers estimated that USAID funding had previously prevented over 90 million deaths between 2001 and 2021. They projected that if funding were to be cut by 83%, as indicated by Rubio, it could result in over 14 million avoidable deaths, including more than 4.5 million children under five (US News).
Analysis
The claim that Trump's aid cuts could lead to over 14 million additional deaths is supported by rigorous research published in a peer-reviewed medical journal. The study utilized demographic and mortality data from 133 countries that received USAID assistance, allowing researchers to assess the impact of aid on health outcomes. The findings suggest that high levels of USAID funding correlate with significant reductions in mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations (NPR).
The credibility of the source is bolstered by the fact that The Lancet is a well-respected medical journal, known for publishing high-quality research. The researchers involved in the study are affiliated with reputable institutions, including the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and UCLA, which adds to the reliability of the findings.
However, it is important to note that the Trump administration's perspective on these cuts is rooted in a belief that foreign aid has not yielded sufficient returns on investment. Critics argue that this view overlooks the humanitarian benefits of aid and the potential long-term consequences of funding reductions (France24).
The study's projections of 14 million deaths are based on modeling that assumes a drastic reduction in funding. While the estimates are alarming, they are also contingent on the continuation of current policies and do not account for potential changes in funding or humanitarian responses from other nations (CNN).
Conclusion
The claim that Trump's aid cuts could cause over 14 million additional deaths by 2030 is True. The evidence presented in the study published in The Lancet is robust and highlights the potential catastrophic impact of the funding reductions on global health, particularly for vulnerable populations. The credibility of the research, combined with the alarming projections, supports the assertion that these cuts could have dire consequences.
Sources
- Trump's aid cut risks causing 14 million deaths, report finds - BBC
- Study: 14 million lives could be lost due to Trump aid cuts - NPR
- USAID Cuts May Cause Over 14 Million Additional Deaths by 2030 - US News
- US foreign aid cuts could cause 14 million deaths by 2030 - France24
- Over 14 million people could die from Trump administration cuts - Fortune
- Rubio hails end of USAID as study says its elimination could - CNN
- Trump global aid cuts risk 14 million deaths in five years - MSN
