Fact Check: NOAA claims DMSP data loss won't affect forecasting quality—scientists disagree.

Fact Check: NOAA Claims DMSP Data Loss Won't Affect Forecasting Quality—Scientists Disagree

What We Know

The claim revolves around the assertion that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has stated that the loss of data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) will not significantly impact the quality of weather forecasting. NOAA is a reputable agency responsible for providing weather forecasts, climate monitoring, and environmental data, which are critical for public safety and economic stability (NOAA, NOAA Weather).

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining high-quality forecasts despite challenges such as data loss. The agency collects approximately 6.3 billion observations daily and issues around 1.5 million forecasts annually, indicating a robust infrastructure for weather data collection and analysis (NOAA Weather).

However, there are reports from scientists and meteorologists who express concerns regarding the implications of losing DMSP data. These experts argue that DMSP satellites have historically provided valuable data for weather forecasting, particularly in regions where other data sources may be limited. The loss of this data could potentially lead to gaps in forecasting accuracy, especially for severe weather events (NOAA About, Former NOAA Scientist).

Analysis

The reliability of NOAA as a source is generally high, given its status as a government agency focused on scientific research and public safety. However, the internal disagreements highlighted by former NOAA scientists raise questions about the agency's transparency and the robustness of its data management practices. For instance, a former NOAA scientist has claimed that there were manipulations and disagreements regarding climate data before publication, which may suggest that not all internal assessments are uniformly accepted (Former NOAA Scientist).

While NOAA asserts that it can maintain forecasting quality without DMSP data, the dissenting voices from the scientific community indicate a lack of consensus. The concerns raised by these scientists are significant, as they underscore the potential risks associated with relying solely on NOAA's assessments without considering the broader scientific discourse. The credibility of these dissenting opinions is bolstered by their basis in scientific inquiry and the historical importance of DMSP data in weather forecasting.

Conclusion

Verdict: Needs Research
The claim that NOAA believes the loss of DMSP data will not affect forecasting quality is partially substantiated by the agency's statements. However, the dissent from scientists suggests that there are valid concerns about the implications of this data loss. The lack of consensus and the potential for gaps in forecasting accuracy warrant further investigation into the matter. More comprehensive studies and discussions within the scientific community are needed to fully understand the impact of DMSP data loss on weather forecasting.

Sources

1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2. Weather | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
3. About our agency - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
4. NOAA Online
5. Contact NOAA headquarters - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
6. Former NOAA Scientist Confirms Colleagues Manipulated Climate Records
7. READY Current Meteorology
8. Weather and climate resources | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration