Fact Check: "New bill could add over $3 trillion to national debt."
What We Know
The claim that a new bill could add over $3 trillion to the national debt is supported by a recent analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO, the Senate version of the tax and health care bill proposed by Senate Republicans is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade, specifically from 2025 to 2034 (AP News, New York Times). This estimate represents a significant increase from the earlier House-passed version of the bill, which was projected to add about $2.4 trillion to the debt (Washington Post).
The CBO's analysis also indicates that the bill would lead to a substantial increase in the number of uninsured Americans, with an estimated 11.8 million more people losing health coverage by 2034 (AP News). The bill's cost is primarily driven by the extension of tax cuts originally enacted in 2017, which are set to expire soon. Extending these tax cuts is estimated to have a budgetary impact of approximately $3.8 trillion (New York Times).
Analysis
The CBO is a reputable and nonpartisan organization that provides budget and economic information to Congress, making its estimates a reliable source for assessing the fiscal impact of legislation. The CBO's projection of a $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt is based on traditional scoring methods, which many Republicans have contested. Some GOP members argue that the costs associated with extending the 2017 tax cuts should not be counted as new expenses because they are already in place, a perspective that has been labeled as "magic math" by critics (AP News, New York Times).
Moreover, the CBO's initial estimate of $3.3 trillion is considered conservative, as it does not account for additional borrowing costs that could push the total closer to $4 trillion (New York Times). This discrepancy highlights the contentious nature of budget scoring and the differing interpretations of fiscal responsibility among lawmakers.
While the CBO's analysis is widely respected, it is important to note that political motivations can influence interpretations of its findings. Some Republicans have expressed skepticism about the CBO's estimates, which may reflect a broader strategy to downplay the fiscal implications of the bill in order to secure its passage (AP News, Washington Post).
Conclusion
Based on the evidence provided by the CBO and corroborated by multiple reputable news sources, the claim that the new bill could add over $3 trillion to the national debt is True. The CBO's estimate of a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade, along with the potential for that figure to rise closer to $4 trillion when including additional costs, supports this conclusion. The significant fiscal implications of the bill, along with the contentious debate surrounding its scoring, underline the complexities of budgetary policy in the current political landscape.
