Fact Check: New bill could add over $3 trillion to national debt!

Fact Check: "New bill could add over $3 trillion to national debt!"

What We Know

The claim that a new bill could add over $3 trillion to the national debt is supported by multiple analyses from credible sources. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Senate version of the tax bill would increase the deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, which is nearly $1 trillion more than the House-passed version that projected an increase of $2.4 trillion over the same period (AP News). Additionally, the CBO indicated that debt-service costs associated with the bill would total around $551 billion, further contributing to the cumulative deficit increase (CBO).

This aligns with reports from other reputable outlets, such as the New York Times and Axios, which also confirm that the Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade (New York Times, Axios).

Analysis

The CBO's estimates are based on a thorough analysis of the proposed legislation, taking into account both revenue reductions and spending changes. The CBO's credibility is well-established, as it is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective analyses to Congress. Critics of the CBO's estimates, particularly some Republican lawmakers, have suggested alternative budget baselines that could portray the bill as less costly, but these claims have been labeled as "magic math" by some economists and Democrats (AP News).

Moreover, the CBO's analysis indicates that the proposed tax cuts and spending measures would lead to significant increases in the national debt, which raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. The estimates provided by the CBO are widely regarded as reliable, given their rigorous methodology and the agency's reputation for impartiality.

While some sources argue that the bill could potentially reduce deficits under certain conditions, these scenarios rely on assumptions that may not hold true in practice (CBO). Therefore, the consensus among credible analysts is that the bill would indeed add over $3 trillion to the national debt.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The claim that the new bill could add over $3 trillion to the national debt is substantiated by multiple analyses from the CBO and corroborated by various reputable news sources. The CBO's estimate of a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade, along with additional debt-service costs, confirms the validity of the claim. Given the reliability of the CBO and the consistency of the findings across different analyses, it is reasonable to conclude that the assertion is accurate.