Fact Check: Mexico's economic growth is projected to reach just 0.2 percent in 2025 due to new 25 percent US tariffs on exports outside the North American trade deal.

Fact Check: "Mexico's economic growth is projected to reach just 0.2 percent in 2025 due to new 25 percent US tariffs on exports outside the North American trade deal."

What We Know

Recent forecasts indicate that Mexico's economic growth is indeed projected to be just 0.2% in 2025. This projection is attributed to several factors, including the impact of new tariffs imposed by the United States. According to a Reuters report, a poll of economists conducted in late April 2025 confirmed this growth forecast, which represents a significant downgrade from previous estimates. The World Bank also revised its growth forecast for Mexico to the same figure, citing the uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs and a turbulent global economic environment.

The tariffs in question are part of a broader trade policy initiated by the U.S. government, which includes a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. This policy is expected to have a detrimental effect on Mexico's economy, particularly affecting trade and investment. A Brookings Institution analysis highlights that these tariffs will reduce economic growth, jobs, and wages, while also increasing prices in both the U.S. and Mexico.

Analysis

The claim that Mexico's economic growth will reach only 0.2% in 2025 due to the new tariffs is supported by multiple credible sources. The Reuters and World Bank forecasts align, indicating a consensus among economists regarding the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on Mexico's economy. Furthermore, the Budget Lab analysis provides context by modeling the effects of U.S. tariffs, noting that the tariffs are expected to lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points in 2025, which in turn has ripple effects on Mexico's economy.

However, it's important to consider the broader context of these tariffs. While the tariffs are a significant factor, they are not the sole reason for the projected low growth. Other factors, such as weak investment and deteriorating business confidence in Mexico, also contribute to this economic outlook (Invezz, Talk Markets). Therefore, while the tariffs are a major influence, they are part of a more complex economic situation.

The reliability of the sources cited is generally high, as they include reputable institutions like the World Bank and established news organizations. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that economic forecasts can be subject to change based on new data and evolving circumstances.

Conclusion

The claim that Mexico's economic growth is projected to reach just 0.2% in 2025 due to new 25% U.S. tariffs is Partially True. While the forecast is accurate and supported by credible sources, it is essential to recognize that the tariffs are not the only factor affecting Mexico's economic outlook. Other economic conditions also play a significant role in this projection.

Sources

1. Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional ...
2. Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be a blow ...
3. Mexico economy to barely grow this year thanks to US tariff shock ...
4. 2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico
5. World Bank revises Mexico's 2025 growth forecast up 0.2%
6. Mexico's economic growth outlook dims amid US tariffs and investment ...
7. PDF This outlook reflects information available as of April 10, 2025. MEXICO
8. Mexico's Economic Growth Outlook Dims Amid U.S. Tariffs And Investment ...