Fact Check: "Medicaid cuts could conservatively kill 51,000 people, according to Yale."
What We Know
A recent letter from public health researchers at Yale University and the University of Pennsylvania warns that proposed changes to Medicaid and other health programs could lead to over 51,000 preventable deaths annually. This letter was addressed to key Senate leaders and outlines the potential human toll of eliminating essential health protections. The researchers estimate that approximately 42,500 lives could be lost due to disenrollments in Medicaid and Marketplace coverage, coupled with the rollback of nursing home staffing rules. An additional 8,811 deaths are projected from the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) Premium Tax Credits, culminating in a total estimate of over 51,000 deaths each year if the proposed policies are enacted.
The letter details three major provisions of the House-passed federal budget reconciliation bill that would contribute to these fatalities:
- Loss of coverage for 7.7 million people, resulting in an estimated 11,300 additional deaths annually.
- Disenrollment of 1.38 million low-income Medicare beneficiaries, leading to an increase of 18,200 deaths per year.
- Elimination of minimum staffing standards in nursing homes, which could result in 13,000 deaths annually among residents.
The researchers emphasize that these estimates are based on peer-reviewed studies that link insurance coverage, access to prescription drugs, and nursing home staffing levels with all-cause mortality (Yale Daily News).
Analysis
The claim that Medicaid cuts could lead to 51,000 preventable deaths is supported by credible research conducted by experts in public health and policy. The letter from Yale and the University of Pennsylvania is a response to a request for technical assistance from Senate committees, indicating that it is a scientifically grounded assessment rather than a politically motivated statement. The methodology used to arrive at these estimates includes peer-reviewed studies and population loss projections from the Congressional Budget Office, which adds to the reliability of the findings (Yale University).
However, it is important to consider the potential biases in the sources. The researchers are affiliated with institutions that may have a vested interest in the outcomes of health policy discussions. Nevertheless, the data presented is based on established methodologies and peer-reviewed literature, which generally lends credibility to their conclusions. The estimates are described as conservative, suggesting that the actual impact could be even more severe if other factors are considered.
The letter's authors, including Dr. Alison Galvani from Yale, highlight that the projected deaths would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, such as older adults and low-income families, which aligns with broader public health concerns regarding health equity (Penn LDI).
Conclusion
The claim that "Medicaid cuts could conservatively kill 51,000 people, according to Yale" is True. The evidence presented by researchers from Yale and the University of Pennsylvania is robust, relying on scientific modeling and peer-reviewed studies to project the potential mortality impacts of proposed health policy changes. The estimates are grounded in credible research and reflect a serious concern for public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
Sources
- Proposed changes to Medicaid, other health programs could ... Yale University
- House Bill Seen Causing 51000 Preventable Deaths Annually University of Pennsylvania
- June 3, 2025 The Honorable Ron Wyden Yale University
- NEW STUDY: Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' Will Cause Over ... Senator Bernie Sanders
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- Yale scientists warn Medicaid cuts could cause 51000 ... Yale Daily News
