Fact Check: Lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually!

Fact Check: "Lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually!"

What We Know

Lenacapavir is a novel injectable medication designed to prevent HIV infection, with the potential to significantly impact public health. Current market prices for lenacapavir range from approximately $25,395 to $44,819 per patient annually in the U.S. (source-1). However, researchers from the University of Liverpool and other institutions have estimated that if lenacapavir were to be mass-produced under favorable conditions, it could be manufactured for as low as $25 per patient per year, assuming a production scale of 5 to 10 million doses annually (source-2).

The cost estimates are based on a Cost-Plus (Cost+) model that includes the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and key starting materials (KSMs). For example, the API cost is projected to be around $25,000 per kilogram at a demand of 1 million treatment-years, dropping to about $10,000 per kilogram at higher volumes (source-1).

Analysis

The claim that lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually is partially true. The $25 figure is based on projections that assume significant scale-up in production and competition among generic manufacturers. The analysis indicates that with a committed demand of 5 to 10 million doses, the cost could indeed reach this low price point, but this scenario requires specific conditions, such as voluntary licensing agreements and a robust market for generics (source-2).

However, the current pricing landscape is starkly different, with the actual market price expected to be around $25,395 to $44,819 per patient annually (source-1). The potential for achieving the $25 price is contingent upon various factors, including the establishment of voluntary licenses by Gilead, which has not yet occurred. Without these licenses, the pathway to lower prices remains uncertain (source-2).

Conclusion

The claim that lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually is partially true. While the research indicates that this price is theoretically achievable under optimal conditions, the current market reality shows significantly higher prices. The actual implementation of lower costs depends on various factors, including production scale, market competition, and licensing agreements with Gilead. Thus, while the potential exists for a drastic reduction in cost, it is not yet realized in practice.

Sources

1. Lenacapavir to prevent HIV infection: current prices versus estimated costs of production. PubMed
2. 'HIV-ending' drug could be made for just $25 per patient a year, say researchers. The Guardian
3. UNAIDS Global - X. UNAIDS
4. Lenacapavir to prevent HIV infection: current prices versus estimated costs of production. Oxford Academic
5. HIV Ending Drug Could Be Made for Just $25 per Patient a Year. YouTube
6. No HIV infections seen in groundbreaking trial of twice-yearly injectable PrEP. Aidsmap
7. Lenacapavir could be produced for $40 a year. I-Base
8. Health impact, budget impact, and price threshold for cost-effective HIV prevention. The Lancet