Fact Check: Lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually.

Fact Check: "Lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually."

What We Know

Lenacapavir is an innovative drug designed for the prevention of HIV, administered as a twice-yearly injection. Current estimates for the annual cost of lenacapavir range from approximately $25,395 to $44,819 per patient in the United States (source-1). However, researchers have projected that if lenacapavir were to be mass-produced under optimal conditions, it could be manufactured for as little as $25 per patient annually. This estimate is based on a cost-plus pricing model and assumes a significant scale-up in production, potentially reaching 5 to 10 million doses per year (source-2).

Analysis

The claim that lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually is grounded in research conducted by Dr. Andrew Hill and colleagues, who analyzed the costs associated with the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and the necessary production processes. Their findings suggest that with a committed demand of 5 million to 10 million treatment-years, the cost of goods could be significantly reduced (source-1).

However, it is crucial to note that these projections are contingent upon several factors, including the establishment of voluntary licenses and competition among generic manufacturers. Currently, Gilead, the drug's manufacturer, has not agreed to voluntary licensing agreements that would facilitate lower-cost production in many countries (source-2).

While the potential for a $25 price point exists under ideal conditions, the actual market price may be much higher if these conditions are not met. The current list price for lenacapavir in the U.S. is estimated to be around $40,000 per year when used for treatment (source-7). Thus, while the claim reflects a possible scenario, it does not account for the complexities of pharmaceutical pricing and market dynamics.

Conclusion

The claim that lenacapavir could be produced for just $25 per patient annually is Partially True. While research supports the feasibility of this low-cost production under specific conditions, the current pricing landscape and the lack of voluntary licensing agreements create uncertainty about whether this price can be realized in practice. The potential for significant cost reductions exists, but actual prices may remain substantially higher without the necessary market changes.

Sources

1. Lenacapavir to prevent HIV infection: current prices versus ... PubMed
2. 'HIV-ending' drug could be made for just $25 per patient a ... The Guardian
3. UNAIDS Global - X Twitter
4. HIV Ending Drug Could Be Made for Just $25 per Patient a ... YouTube
5. Lenacapavir to prevent HIV infection: current prices versus ... Oxford Academic
6. 'HIV-ending' drug could be made for just $25 per patient a ... LiveJournal
7. No HIV infections seen in groundbreaking trial of twice- ... Aidsmap
8. Lenacapavir could be produced for $40 a year i-Base