Fact Check: "Latvia will die out"
What We Know
The claim that "Latvia will die out" stems from ongoing demographic challenges the country faces. According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, the population of Latvia decreased by approximately 11,000 in 2023, bringing the total to about 1.87 million at the beginning of 2024 (source-1). This decline is attributed to a negative natural population change, where deaths outnumber births. In 2023, there were 14,490 live births, a significant drop of 9.2% from the previous year, while 28,031 people died (source-1).
Despite the overall decline, there has been a positive net migration trend, primarily due to returning citizens and refugees from Ukraine, which somewhat mitigates the population loss (source-1). However, projections indicate that Latvia's population could continue to decline significantly in the coming decades, potentially losing up to 23.5% of its population by 2050 if current trends persist (source-3).
Analysis
The assertion that Latvia is at risk of "dying out" can be interpreted in several ways. On one hand, the declining birth rates and aging population suggest a demographic crisis. The number of births has reached its lowest point in a century, and the population is aging, with a growing percentage of elderly residents (source-1). This trend raises concerns about the sustainability of the population and the potential for a future labor shortage.
On the other hand, the positive net migration, especially from returning Latvians and Ukrainian refugees, indicates that while the population is declining, it is not necessarily on a path to complete extinction. As noted, the influx of remigrants and refugees has provided a temporary boost to the population figures (source-1). Furthermore, the demographic situation is complex, with varying trends across different regions of Latvia. For instance, while urban areas like Riga have seen some population growth, rural regions continue to experience significant declines (source-1).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is generally high, as they are derived from official statistical reports and reputable demographic studies. However, it is essential to consider that projections about future population trends can vary based on changing economic, social, and political factors.
Conclusion
The claim that "Latvia will die out" is Partially True. While the country faces significant demographic challenges, including declining birth rates and an aging population, the situation is not as dire as total extinction. Positive migration trends provide some counterbalance to population decline, indicating that while Latvia's demographic landscape is changing, it is not necessarily on an irreversible path to disappearance.
