Fact Check: "Israeli strike likely destroyed all 15,000 centrifuges at Natanz."
What We Know
Recent reports indicate that Israeli airstrikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility resulted in significant damage. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the centrifuges at Natanz were "likely to have been severely damaged if not destroyed altogether" due to power cuts caused by the attack, even though the underground hall housing the centrifuges was not directly hit (BBC). The IAEA's assessment noted that the above-ground part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant was completely destroyed, and the electrical installations suffered almost total damage (BBC).
Estimates suggest that Natanz housed about 17,000 centrifuges, with approximately 13,500 operational at the time of the strikes (Reuters). However, the exact number of centrifuges that were destroyed or damaged remains unclear, as Grossi emphasized that while the loss of power likely affected the centrifuges, there was no direct evidence of kinetic destruction of the underground facilities themselves (BBC).
Analysis
The claim that "all 15,000 centrifuges" were destroyed is misleading. While Grossi's statements indicate a high probability of severe damage to the centrifuges due to the loss of power, he did not confirm that all were destroyed. The IAEA's assessment suggests that the underground facilities, where the centrifuges are located, were not directly hit, which raises questions about the extent of the damage (BBC).
Furthermore, the Israeli military has claimed that it successfully targeted the Natanz facility, but it has not provided concrete evidence to support the assertion that all centrifuges were destroyed (BBC, Times of Israel). The conflicting reports from various sources, including Iranian officials who maintain that their nuclear program is peaceful, add to the complexity of verifying the damage done (NPR).
The credibility of the sources varies; the IAEA is a reputable international body, while claims from the Israeli military and Iranian officials may be influenced by national interests and propaganda. Thus, while there is substantial evidence of damage, the assertion that all centrifuges were destroyed lacks definitive proof.
Conclusion
The claim that "Israeli strike likely destroyed all 15,000 centrifuges at Natanz" is Partially True. There is credible evidence that the centrifuges were likely severely damaged due to power outages caused by the strikes. However, the assertion that all centrifuges were destroyed is not supported by definitive evidence and is contradicted by statements from the IAEA, which indicate that the underground facilities were not directly hit.
