Fact Check: Inflation gauge rose 2.3% in May, defying expectations.

Fact Check: "Inflation gauge rose 2.3% in May, defying expectations."

What We Know

The claim states that the inflation gauge rose by 2.3% in May, suggesting it defied expectations. However, the data indicates that the annual inflation rate for May 2025 was actually reported at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in April 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index Summary. This increase aligns with the expectations set by economists, as the inflation rate was anticipated to rise to 2.5% but came in slightly lower at 2.4% instead, which indicates that it did not defy expectations as claimed (Trading Economics).

Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, reported a year-over-year increase of 2.3% in May, which was in line with forecasts (Morningstar). This suggests that while the PCE index did rise by 2.3%, it was not an unexpected rise.

Analysis

The claim that inflation rose by 2.3% in May and defied expectations is misleading. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, which is an increase from the previous month and indicates a slight acceleration in inflation, but it did not meet the higher expectations of 2.5% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trading Economics).

Moreover, the PCE index, which also reported a 2.3% increase, was consistent with economists' forecasts, suggesting that there was no surprise in this figure either (CNBC, Morningstar). The distinction between the CPI and PCE measures is important, as they reflect different aspects of inflation, but both indicated that the inflation trends were within expected ranges.

The sources used in this analysis are credible, including reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and reputable financial news outlets like CNBC and Morningstar. These sources provide reliable data on inflation metrics and are widely referenced in economic discussions.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. The claim that the inflation gauge rose by 2.3% in May and defied expectations is incorrect. The actual inflation rate reported was 2.4%, which was a rise from the previous month and did not meet the higher expectations of 2.5%. Furthermore, the 2.3% increase in the PCE index was in line with forecasts, indicating that there was no unexpected rise in inflation.

Sources

1. Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M05 Results
2. PCE inflation report May 2025
3. United States Inflation Rate
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5. Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2025 — in one chart
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8. Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2025