Fact Check: House bill would still increase uninsured by 10.9 million!

Fact Check: House Bill Would Still Increase Uninsured by 10.9 Million!

What We Know

The claim that the House bill would increase the number of uninsured individuals by 10.9 million is supported by multiple sources, including the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO's preliminary estimates, the House-passed reconciliation bill, known as H.R. 1, is projected to lead to an increase of 10.9 million uninsured individuals by the year 2034. This estimate is based on the bill's provisions that significantly cut funding for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which would result in a substantial loss of health coverage for many Americans.

The CBO's analysis indicates that the House bill's Medicaid and CHIP provisions would reduce Medicaid enrollment by approximately 10.5 million people by 2034, contributing to the overall increase in the uninsured population. Specifically, the CBO estimates that these provisions alone would increase the number of uninsured by about 7.8 million in the same timeframe (CBO, Brookings).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is robust, primarily stemming from the CBO, which is a nonpartisan agency known for its impartial analysis of budgetary and economic issues. The CBO's estimates are based on comprehensive modeling and analysis of the proposed legislation's impacts on health coverage. Their methodology typically includes various factors such as projected enrollment changes, funding cuts, and demographic shifts.

Critically, the CBO's findings have been corroborated by other reputable sources, including the Kaiser Family Foundation and reports from NPR. These sources echo the CBO's conclusions, reinforcing the reliability of the data. However, it is important to note that the estimates are preliminary and subject to change as further amendments to the bill are made and more detailed analyses are conducted.

While the CBO is generally considered a credible source, it is essential to recognize that projections about future enrollment and health coverage are inherently uncertain and can be influenced by numerous external factors, including economic conditions and changes in health policy. Nonetheless, the consistency of the 10.9 million figure across multiple analyses lends significant weight to the claim.

Conclusion

The claim that the House bill would increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million is True. This conclusion is based on solid evidence from the CBO and corroborating reports from other reputable organizations. The projected increase in the uninsured population is primarily attributed to significant cuts in Medicaid and CHIP funding, which would adversely affect millions of Americans' health coverage.