Fact Check: "Forecast accuracy plummets as DoD cuts essential hurricane data in half."
What We Know
The claim that forecast accuracy will decline due to the Department of Defense (DoD) cutting essential hurricane data is supported by recent announcements and expert opinions. The U.S. Department of Defense has decided to stop providing satellite weather data that has been crucial for hurricane forecasting for over 40 years. This data, collected by DoD-operated satellites, is processed by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and used by scientists and forecasters to monitor atmospheric and ocean conditions, particularly during hurricane season (NPR, AP News).
Experts have expressed concern that this cut will significantly hinder the ability of forecasters to track hurricanes effectively. Brian Tang, a hurricane researcher, noted that the data allows forecasters to see the structure of hurricanes and make timely predictions about their paths and intensification (NPR). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that the DoD's decision to cease data sharing is not related to funding but is attributed to unspecified cybersecurity concerns (NPR, New York Times).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim comes from multiple reputable sources, including NPR, AP News, and the New York Times, all of which report on the DoD's decision to stop sharing critical satellite data. These sources provide a consistent narrative that highlights the potential negative impact on hurricane forecasting accuracy. The reliability of these sources is generally high, as they are established news organizations known for their journalistic standards.
However, the claim's implications about forecast accuracy "plummeting" may require further context. While the cessation of data sharing is indeed concerning, the extent to which forecast accuracy will decline is not quantified in the available reports. Experts like Brian Tang have indicated that the data is essential for real-time monitoring and forecasting, suggesting that the absence of this data will likely lead to less accurate predictions (NPR, AP News).
Moreover, the DoD's justification for the cuts—citing cybersecurity concerns—raises questions about the balance between national security and public safety. While the data will still be collected and used by the DoD, the lack of access for forecasters could lead to significant gaps in information that are critical during peak hurricane season (NPR, New York Times).
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that forecast accuracy will decline due to the DoD cutting essential hurricane data is substantiated by credible reports and expert opinions. The cessation of data sharing is expected to hinder hurricane forecasting capabilities, which could lead to less accurate predictions and potentially jeopardize public safety during hurricane events.
