Fact Check: Deficit now exceeds 6% of GDP, unprecedented in peacetime

Fact Check: "Deficit now exceeds 6% of GDP, unprecedented in peacetime"

What We Know

The claim that the deficit exceeds 6% of GDP is supported by recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to their reports, the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be 6.2% of GDP (CBO Updates Baseline, The Budget and Economic Outlook). This figure is notably higher than the historical average of approximately 3.8% over the past 50 years (CBO Updates Baseline). Furthermore, a report from June 2024 indicates that the deficit for fiscal year 2024 was even higher, at 6.7% of GDP, marking it as the highest peacetime figure recorded (CBO Updates Baseline).

The assertion that such a high deficit is unprecedented in peacetime is corroborated by various sources. For instance, a June 2025 report states that the current deficit is "virtually unheard of in peacetime U.S. economies" (CNBC). Additionally, the CBO's long-term projections suggest that the deficit could continue to exceed historical norms, with estimates indicating it could reach 7.3% of GDP in future years (The Long-Term Budget Outlook).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is robust, with multiple reputable sources confirming the current deficit levels. The CBO is a credible source, as it is a nonpartisan agency that provides economic data and projections to Congress. Their reports are based on comprehensive economic analysis and are widely regarded as authoritative in the field of budgetary and economic forecasting.

However, while the claim is accurate regarding the current deficit levels, the term "unprecedented" requires careful consideration. Historically, the U.S. has experienced high deficits during wartime and economic crises, such as the Great Recession. The context of "peacetime" is significant, as it implies a comparison to periods without major military engagements or economic downturns. Thus, while the current deficit is indeed high for peacetime, it is essential to recognize that the U.S. has experienced higher deficits in other contexts.

Moreover, the CBO's projections indicate that the deficit is expected to decrease slightly to 5.2% of GDP by 2027 as revenues are anticipated to grow faster than outlays (The Budget and Economic Outlook). This suggests that while the current situation is alarming, it may not represent a permanent state of affairs.

Conclusion

Verdict: Partially True

The claim that the deficit now exceeds 6% of GDP is accurate, as confirmed by multiple sources, including the CBO. However, the assertion that this situation is "unprecedented in peacetime" is somewhat misleading. While the current deficit is indeed among the highest recorded during peacetime, it is essential to consider historical contexts where higher deficits occurred. Therefore, the claim is partially true, as it accurately reflects current deficit levels but lacks nuance regarding historical comparisons.