Fact Check: Military spending boost could double the deficit by 2035.

Fact Check: Military Spending Boost Could Double the Deficit by 2035

What We Know

The claim that military spending could double the deficit by 2035 is rooted in recent agreements among NATO allies to significantly increase defense budgets. At a NATO summit, member countries agreed to raise their military spending to 5% of their national income by 2035, up from the previous target of 2% (source-1). This increase includes 3.5% for traditional military needs and 1.5% for "militarily adjacent" projects like infrastructure and cybersecurity (source-4).

In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute has projected that this increase in defense spending will add a staggering $68.4 billion to the federal deficit by 2035 (source-2). The report suggests that the federal deficit could average around $78 billion annually over the next four years, which is more than double the previous forecasts (source-3).

Analysis

The claim that military spending could double the deficit by 2035 is partially true. The increase in military spending is indeed projected to have a significant impact on national deficits, particularly in countries like Canada, where the C.D. Howe Institute's analysis indicates a potential increase of $68.4 billion to the deficit due to defense spending commitments (source-2).

However, this projection is based on specific assumptions about future economic conditions and government spending efficiency. The C.D. Howe report considers this an "optimistic" scenario, implying that if anticipated savings and efficiencies do not materialize, the actual deficit could be even higher (source-3).

Moreover, while the NATO agreement reflects a collective commitment to increased military spending, the actual implementation and impact on national budgets will vary significantly from country to country. Some nations may struggle to meet the 5% target, which could affect the overall financial implications of the agreement (source-1).

The reliability of the sources is generally high, with the C.D. Howe Institute being a reputable think tank known for its economic analyses. However, projections about future deficits are inherently uncertain and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic growth, changes in government policy, and unforeseen global events.

Conclusion

The claim that military spending could double the deficit by 2035 is partially true. While there is credible evidence suggesting that increased military spending will lead to significant increases in national deficits, particularly in Canada, the actual outcomes will depend on various economic and political factors. The projections are based on assumptions that may not hold true, making it essential to approach such claims with caution.

Sources

1. NATO Agrees to a Big Increase in Military Spending, Pleasing ...
2. Defence spending to add 'staggering' sum to deficit by ...
3. Defence spending to add 'staggering' sum to deficit by ...
4. NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target - CNBC
5. The price of security: Europe is set up for a serious challenge
6. Defence spending to add 'staggering' sum to deficit by ...
7. NATO Launches Global Arms Race As Defense Spending ... - Forbes
8. NATO Agrees to Boost Defense Spending to 5% of GDP by ...