Fact Check: "Crime rates can be measured in incidents per million trips."
What We Know
The claim that crime rates can be measured in incidents per million trips is supported by research that emphasizes the importance of adjusting crime statistics based on human activity levels. A study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences discusses how traditional crime rates can misrepresent public safety by failing to account for changes in the amount of time people spend in public spaces, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors argue that the risk of victimization in public increased significantly during this period, even as overall crime rates appeared to decline (Massenkoff & Chalfin, 2022).
The concept of measuring crime rates in relation to specific activities or exposures, such as trips taken, is not new. It allows for a more nuanced understanding of crime risk by contextualizing the data against the backdrop of how many people are exposed to potential victimization. This approach is echoed in various methodologies used by crime statistics organizations, which often express crime rates as incidents per a defined population or activity level (Bureau of Justice Statistics, NACJD).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim comes from a robust analysis of crime data that incorporates mobility and activity levels. The study by Massenkoff and Chalfin utilized both administrative crime data and national survey data to demonstrate that the risk of being a victim of street crime increased during the pandemic, despite a decrease in reported violent crimes. They calculated the risk of victimization by dividing the number of violent crimes occurring in public spaces by the amount of time people spent in those spaces (Massenkoff & Chalfin, 2022).
This method of adjusting crime rates for activity levels aligns with established practices in criminology, where crime rates are often expressed per a specific unit of measurement to allow for comparability across different contexts (USA Facts, FBI). The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is high, as they come from peer-reviewed research and respected statistical agencies, which are known for their rigorous methodologies.
However, it is essential to consider potential biases in the data collection process. For instance, changes in crime reporting practices or shifts in the demographics of those who venture out into public spaces could affect the outcomes. The study addressed these concerns by showing that the increased risk of victimization was not merely a result of changes in reporting behavior or victim selection (Massenkoff & Chalfin, 2022).
Conclusion
The claim that crime rates can be measured in incidents per million trips is True. The evidence indicates that adjusting crime statistics based on the level of human activity provides a more accurate representation of public safety and victimization risk. This approach is supported by both recent research and established methodologies in crime measurement.
Sources
- Activity-adjusted crime rates show that public safety worsened in 2020. Link
- The Nation's two crime measures - Bureau of Justice Statistics. Link
- NACJD | Victimization Guide. Link
- FBI — Methodology. Link
- How Crime in the United States Is Measured. Link
- The Measurement of Crime - Criminology: Foundations and Modern Applications. Link
- How is crime measured in the US? - USAFacts. Link
- Methodology. Link
