Fact Check: "Core prices soar to 2.7%, exceeding economists' expectations."
What We Know
The claim that core prices have soared to 2.7% is supported by recent economic forecasts. Economists from Morgan Stanley Research have projected that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to reach 2.7% in 2025, an increase from their previous forecast of 2.5% (CBS News). This aligns with the broader context of rising inflation expectations, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a general upward trend in prices, with core inflation being a significant component of this measure (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim comes from reputable economic analyses and forecasts. The projection by Morgan Stanley is particularly noteworthy because it reflects the consensus among economists regarding inflation trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply chain issues. The increase to 2.7% is described as a "more pronounced and sooner re-acceleration in goods prices," which suggests a shift in economic conditions that could lead to sustained inflation (CBS News).
Moreover, the Consumer Price Index Summary for May 2025 corroborates the rising inflation trend, indicating that core prices are indeed moving upward (Bureau of Labor Statistics). The reliability of these sources is high, as they are based on data from established financial institutions and government agencies.
However, it is important to note that while the projections indicate a rise in core inflation, actual inflation rates can be influenced by a multitude of factors, including economic policy changes, global market conditions, and unforeseen events. The forecasts reflect expectations based on current data and trends, but they are not certainties.
Conclusion
The claim that core prices have soared to 2.7%, exceeding economists' expectations, is True. The evidence from credible economic forecasts and CPI data supports this assertion, indicating a significant upward trend in core inflation that aligns with economists' revised expectations.
