Fact Check: "By 2035, solar and wind power are expected to be the largest electricity sources."
What We Know
The claim that solar and wind power will be the largest sources of electricity by 2035 is supported by various studies and projections. According to the Solar Futures Study published by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), solar energy is projected to supply 40% or more of U.S. electricity demand by 2035. This study outlines scenarios where the U.S. electric grid could achieve 95% decarbonization by 2035, necessitating significant increases in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations.
Additionally, a recent interagency study indicates that there is substantial potential for renewable energy expansion on federal lands, with projections suggesting that between 51 to 84 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy could be deployed by 2035. This deployment could contribute significantly to the overall renewable energy capacity needed to meet future electricity demands.
Furthermore, a report from BloombergNEF suggests that solar, wind, and other renewable sources are expected to serve 67% of the world's demand for electric power by 2050, indicating a strong upward trend in renewable energy adoption globally (BloombergNEF).
Analysis
While the projections for solar and wind power growth are optimistic, they are contingent on several factors, including technological advancements, policy support, and market conditions. The Solar Futures Study emphasizes that achieving a 40% share of electricity from solar by 2035 will require the installation of 30 GW of solar PV capacity annually between 2021 and 2025, ramping up to 60 GW per year from 2025 to 2030. This ambitious target reflects the need for a significant increase in deployment rates compared to historical levels.
The interagency study provides a more localized perspective, focusing on the potential for renewable energy on federal lands. It highlights that while there is technical potential for substantial renewable energy capacity, actual deployment may be limited by regulatory and environmental considerations. The study indicates that only 4% of currently operating renewable energy generation in the contiguous U.S. is located on federal lands, suggesting challenges in scaling up capacity.
Moreover, the global perspective provided by GlobalData reinforces the trend toward increased renewable energy capacity, projecting a surge in global renewable power installed capacity to 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2035. However, the claim that solar and wind will be the largest sources of electricity also requires consideration of other renewable sources and the pace of fossil fuel phase-out.
In summary, while the evidence supports the potential for solar and wind power to become major electricity sources by 2035, the realization of this potential depends on various factors, including policy frameworks, technological advancements, and market dynamics.
Conclusion
Verdict: Partially True
The claim that solar and wind power are expected to be the largest electricity sources by 2035 is partially true. Projections indicate significant growth in solar and wind energy, with solar potentially supplying up to 40% of U.S. electricity. However, the actual realization of this potential is contingent upon various factors, including regulatory support and technological advancements. While there is optimism about renewable energy growth, the claim does not fully account for the complexities and challenges involved in achieving these targets.
