Fact Check: "Solar power will become the world's primary energy source by 2035."
What We Know
The claim that solar power will become the world's primary energy source by 2035 is supported by various studies and projections. A significant report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicates that solar and wind energy could account for 60% to 80% of electricity generation in the U.S. by 2035, as part of a broader goal of achieving 100% clean electricity. This transition would require unprecedented scaling of clean energy technologies and infrastructure.
Additionally, a new modeling tool developed by Andrew Birch suggests that solar power could meet over half of global energy demand by 2035. Birch's model, which he refers to as the S-Curve, predicts that solar energy will eclipse nuclear power and oil within the next decade, fundamentally changing the energy landscape (PV Magazine, AltEnergyMag).
However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global energy consumption will increase by 53% from 2008 to 2035, driven largely by economic growth in developing nations like China and India. This increase raises questions about whether solar can become the primary energy source amidst rising overall energy demand.
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim is compelling but nuanced. The NREL study provides a detailed analysis of the pathways to achieving a net-zero power grid, emphasizing the role of solar and wind energy. However, it is important to note that the study focuses on the U.S. and does not necessarily reflect global trends. The potential for solar to dominate the energy mix is contingent upon several factors, including technological advancements, policy support, and infrastructure development.
Birch's S-Curve model offers a provocative perspective, arguing that solar's growth is not only inevitable but also necessary for a clean energy transition. His assertion that solar will displace traditional energy sources within a decade is bold and based on current growth trends. However, the model's reliance on historical data and assumptions about future growth rates may introduce uncertainty.
Conversely, the EIA's projections highlight a more complex reality. The anticipated increase in global energy consumption suggests that even if solar power grows significantly, it may not be sufficient to meet the overall demand, particularly in rapidly developing economies. This indicates that while solar may become a major player, it may not necessarily become the primary source of energy globally by 2035.
The sources cited vary in reliability. The NREL and EIA are reputable organizations with a strong track record in energy analysis, while Birch's model, though innovative, may require further validation through peer-reviewed research.
Conclusion
The claim that solar power will become the world's primary energy source by 2035 is Partially True. While there is strong evidence supporting the rapid growth of solar energy and its potential to significantly contribute to global energy needs, the complexities of rising overall energy demand and the need for substantial technological and infrastructural advancements temper the certainty of this outcome. The transition to solar as a primary energy source is plausible but not guaranteed within the specified timeframe.
Sources
- 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study
- EIA projects world energy use to increase 53 percent by 2035
- Model predicts solar to supply 50% of global energy demand by 2035
- Half of energy will come from solar by 2035: ground-breaking climate modeling tool challenges previous energy projections
- Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today moving world closer to tripling goal
- Renewable Energy Capacity Estimated to Triple Worldwide
- New modelling shows solar power could dominate global energy
- Half of energy will come from solar by 2035: ground-breaking climate modeling tool challenges previous energy projections
