Fact Check: America is not as safe as we used to be

Fact Check: "America is not as safe as we used to be"

What We Know

The claim that "America is not as safe as we used to be" can be evaluated through recent crime statistics and historical trends. A report by Jeff Asher of Jeff-alytics indicates that the first quarter of 2025 has shown a significant decline in national crime rates, with property crime dropping by 16%, motor vehicle theft by 30%, and violent crime by 14% (source-1). Additionally, murder and robbery counts decreased by 21% during the same period.

However, historical data reveals a more complex picture. The U.S. homicide rate peaked at 10.7 per 100,000 people in 1991, fell to a low of 4.7 by 2014, but rose again to 6.61 in 2023 (source-2). This suggests that while crime rates have fluctuated, there have been significant periods of both decline and increase over the decades.

Analysis

The evidence presented in the Jeff Asher report indicates a promising trend in crime reduction for early 2025, but it also includes caveats regarding the reliability of Year-To-Date (YTD) data. Asher notes that early-year statistics can be misleading as they may reflect underreported incidents from the previous year (source-1). The report emphasizes that while the trends are encouraging, they are not definitive and could change as more data becomes available throughout the year.

Moreover, the historical context provided by the ConsumerShield article illustrates that while there have been recent surges in crime rates, particularly in homicides from 2019 to 2023, the overall long-term trend has seen significant declines since the early 1990s (source-2). This context is crucial for understanding the current claim, as it highlights that perceptions of safety can be influenced by both recent spikes in crime and historical lows.

The reliability of the sources is generally strong; the Jeff-alytics report is based on data from over 380 agencies and corroborated by multiple city police departments and the Gun Violence Archive (source-1). However, the ConsumerShield article, while informative, is primarily a summary of trends and does not delve deeply into the factors influencing crime rates, which could limit its analytical depth (source-2).

Conclusion

The claim that "America is not as safe as we used to be" is Partially True. While recent data indicates a decline in crime rates in early 2025, historical trends show significant fluctuations in safety perceptions and actual crime rates over the decades. The complexities of crime data, including the potential for misinterpretation of early-year statistics, suggest that while current trends are positive, they do not negate the reality of past increases in crime or the ongoing concerns about public safety.