Fact Check: "33.4% of Taiwanese trust the US to defend them, the lowest ever."
What We Know
Recent surveys indicate a significant decline in Taiwanese trust in the United States regarding military support. A study conducted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) found that only 33.5% of Taiwanese respondents expressed confidence in the U.S. to intervene in a military conflict, marking a notable drop from previous years (source-5). This decline is attributed to various factors, including changing political dynamics and perceptions of U.S. reliability under different administrations.
In a survey conducted in March 2025, 37.5% of Taiwanese believed it was "likely" or "very likely" that the U.S. would intervene in a military conflict, down from 44.5% in July 2024 (source-1). This suggests a growing skepticism about U.S. commitments to Taiwan's defense, which has been exacerbated by recent geopolitical events.
Analysis
The claim that 33.4% of Taiwanese trust the U.S. to defend them is closely aligned with the reported figure of 33.5% from the INDSR survey, indicating a high level of accuracy in the claim. However, the phrasing "the lowest ever" requires further scrutiny. While the current figure is indeed lower than previous years, the historical context of trust levels in U.S. defense commitments is complex.
The decline in trust can be linked to several factors, including the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the perceived unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration (source-1). Additionally, the INDSR survey indicates that confidence in U.S. military intervention has been trending downward since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, suggesting that the decline is part of a broader pattern rather than an isolated incident (source-3).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is generally strong, as they are based on surveys conducted by reputable institutions and reflect a systematic approach to understanding public sentiment in Taiwan. However, the interpretation of these figures can vary, and the context of political polarization in Taiwan may influence how different demographics perceive U.S. support (source-1).
Conclusion
The claim that 33.4% of Taiwanese trust the U.S. to defend them is Partially True. The figure is accurate according to recent surveys, but the assertion that this is the lowest level of trust ever requires a nuanced understanding of historical trends in public opinion regarding U.S. military support. While current trust levels are indeed low, they reflect a broader decline over time rather than a sudden drop, influenced by various geopolitical factors.
